The current BALD market is experiencing a recovery in sentiment and a return to value. On-chain liquidity is improving, spot funds are leading the rebound, but leverage remains low. In the short term, investors should be alert to the risk of rapid adjustments caused by divergences between trading volume and price. In the medium term, fundamental factors and ecosystem progress are attracting value-driven funds. It is recommended that investors build positions in batches at key support zones (suggested reference: previous high-volume price areas with ±10% fluctuation), strictly control position sizes, and only increase holdings when volume and price resonance is confirmed. Throughout the process, dynamically monitor whale positions and on-chain flows to safeguard principal against sudden drawdowns.

Recent on-chain data and quantitative indicators show that the overall crypto market is gradually shifting from the previous deleveraging phase to a more moderate expansion. Cautious sentiment in the capital market is fading, while risk signals like Z-Score are turning positive, suggesting liquidity replenishment and warming bullish sentiment. However, the current rebound is mainly driven by spot demand, with leverage participation still at low levels. If price and trading volume diverge in the short term, beware of the risks of rapid position liquidations by speculators.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Against the backdrop of continued improvement in macro and industry fundamentals, value-driven funds and trend followers are starting to re-evaluate potential opportunities. Unlike pure speculation, the long-term holding value of quality projects is gradually emerging, and in this phase, shorts making their last selling efforts risk being squeezed out. For BALD, core technology advancements and ecosystem development remain the medium- to long-term market focus, while short-term volatility is more likely to be a positioning window prior to trend confirmation.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Given the dual signals of sentiment recovery and value comeback, it is advisable to enter positions in batches at key support zones, strictly control position sizes, and rely on the low-leverage environment to lower liquidation risks. Wait for a synchronized rise in trading volume and funding rates to confirm the upward trend before further position increases. Also, closely monitor whale position shifts and on-chain capital flows, and take timely profits or adjust positions to protect overall returns from short-term pullbacks.

Bald

Fed: Leadership uncertainty shapes Dollar outlook – DBS

Allianz Chief Economic Advisor: Middle East Shock Drives Global Central Banks into a "Higher for Longer" Interest Rate Environment

Analyst: Interest rate decision will be the main market driver, focus on the impact of Middle East conflict.

US Treasury yields rise, market focuses on this week's central bank meetings.

Barclays: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week, but may still cut rates within the year.

Bank of England to keep rates on hold while it gauges impact of Iran war

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, setting up a communication challenge for Governor Kazuo Ueda as the foundering yen hovers near levels that have prompted past interventions.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

HTX DeepThink: After Interest Rate Cut Expectations Are Postponed to September, the Structural Differentiation of the Crypto Market Intensifies

FOMC Meeting: US Fed Expected To Hold Rates Till 2027 Despite Kevin Warsh Taking Charge

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