At the current stage, driven by a rebound in macro risk appetite and improved liquidity, BB broke through from the 0.0227 bottom. Recently, it surged to 0.0333 and then pulled back, with short-term support focused on the 0.0260–0.0280 range. The derivatives market is showing caution signals, as mainstream asset options and funding rates both indicate a risk of correction. Overall, it is advised that short-term strategies should be based on the effective support of the range, wait for volume confirmation before re-initiating upward positions, avoid blindly chasing highs, and adopt strategies of selling high and buying low while controlling position size.

Driven by eased US-Iran tensions and falling oil prices, the market's expectations for inflation pressure and US Fed rate cuts have risen, significantly warming risk asset sentiment. In addition, Bitcoin options short covering and continued ETF inflows have improved the overall liquidity in the crypto market. Against this backdrop, after BB established a bottom around 0.0227 at the end of March, it followed the upturn in overall risk appetite, leading the way in upward moves, confirming the significant positive impact of macro factors on small and mid-cap tokens.

Bitcoin call options with an $80,000 strike price on Deribit have surged to over $1.6 billion in open interest, surpassing $1.41 billion in $60,000 put options, signaling a market shift amid improving sentiment. Analysts link this to a temporary US-Iran ceasefire easing oil prices and inflation concerns, boosting expectations for Fed rate cuts and benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. Asset manager 21Shares notes that with ongoing ETF inflows and institutional holdings, Bitcoin could approach $100,000 by Q2 end if geopolitical and regulatory conditions improve, though risks remain if Middle East tensions escalate.

Analysis: Bitcoin $80K call options open interest exceeds $1.6 billion, market bets on a rally driven by a combination of trend reversal and rate cut expectations.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

Daily chart data shows BB repeatedly bottoming in the 0.0227–0.0239 range from March 28 to April 3, then breaking through the 0.0250 resistance on April 4 due to a surge in trading volume, but without sustained momentum, quickly retracing to consolidate in the narrow 0.0235–0.0245 range. On April 13, it rallied again to reach 0.0272, and on April 16, with extremely high volume, it surged to 0.0333; afterward, the price pulled back and found support around 0.0280. The daily chart's long upper shadow indicates intensified selling pressure after short-term overbought, and subsequent attention should be given to the effectiveness of support in the 0.0260–0.0280 range.

Brown Brothers Harriman expects the Dollar Index (DXY) to continue trading within its nearly one-year range of 96.00–100.00 in the coming months, driven primarily by rate differentials. They believe risk sentiment bottomed on March 30 and markets are shifting focus from the IMF’s gloomy growth forecasts to a recovery narrative, with the worst of the energy shock likely behind us.

DXY: Range-bound trading expected to continue — BBH

In Q1 2026, the Ethereum to Bitcoin price ratio (ETH/BTC) rebounded to 0.0313, a three-month high, indicating a recovery in the crypto market. Ethereum network users grew 82% year-on-year to 284,000, with transaction volume reaching 200.4 million. Stablecoin supply exceeded $180 billion, about 60% of the global market. Analysts suggest that if ETH/BTC closes above 0.035 weekly, it signals continued inflows into Ethereum and high-risk assets. Bitcoin remains above $74,000, supported by over $56 billion inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Analysis: Ethereum-Bitcoin price ratio rebounds, overall crypto market recovers

From the derivatives perspective, Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest has declined, and the demand for downside protection in the options market has risen significantly, making the overall atmosphere more cautious. This suggests that although mainstream assets have short-term momentum to continue rebounding, the market remains vigilant toward possible pullbacks. As a high-leverage beta asset, BB may experience simultaneous volatility and adjustment in an environment of divergent risk appetites in Bitcoin derivatives. Operationally, it is recommended to confirm that the 0.0260–0.0280 support is solid before verifying upward momentum with increased volume.

Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% weekly, driven mainly by spot buying rather than broad risk appetite. Derivatives markets show caution: perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest declines, and options indicate higher demand for downside protection. This suggests a rebound, not a trend reversal, amid ongoing risk aversion and cautious sentiment despite gains.

Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

BitBoard

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Trump: US-Iran talks progress as Iran suspends nuclear program

Trump warns of bombing if no Iran deal by April 21 ceasefire expiration

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

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