FELIX is currently experiencing a marginal improvement in liquidity and is in a short-term rebound phase driven by spot buying. A healthy bottom structure has emerged on the technical side, but the lack of follow-through in trading volume casts doubt on the sustainability of the rebound. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the macro funding environment remains weak, with leverage and mainstream market confidence yet to recover significantly, and systemic downside risks still present. Given the rigid financing structure and locked position pressure, short-term investors are advised to take profits in batches at the higher end of the $0.86–0.95 range during rebounds, while monitoring changes in volume at key support levels (around $0.78). Medium- to long-term holders should prudently assess the project ecosystem and community feedback, and remain alert to potential risks of rapid liquidity drops triggered by macro corrections.

Recently, multiple on-chain data points and market sentiment indicators have begun to improve, indicating that asset prices are moving away from the deleveraging phase. This round of price increases is predominantly driven by spot buying, accompanied by a recovery in liquidity, forming a healthy bottom rebound structure. However, since trading volume and fee growth have yet to catch up sufficiently, investors remain cautious about the continuation of the trend, and short-term pullback risks need to be watched closely.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Although market sentiment has eased, the overall macro liquidity and funding environment remain bleak. Leverage position replenishment is limited, and negative divergence signals occasionally appear, indicating that bulls have not fully returned to the market. If major assets see another significant pullback, market sentiment may swiftly turn cautious, affecting overall risk appetite and capital attention towards new projects.

Recently, several prediction market and public offering projects have faced challenges including insufficient participation and mechanism adjustments, highlighting that in volatile environments, project teams need flexible allocation and incentive schemes to secure community support. Long lock-up periods and high valuations often make investors cautious; if the financing structure is too rigid, it will aggravate liquidity pressure in the token’s secondary market.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Infinex's INX token public sale on Sonar faced low participation, prompting the team to admit mistakes in the sales mechanism and implement key rule changes, including removing individual investment caps and switching to a fair distribution model. The project, backed by prominent investors and involving Patron NFTs, struggled with community backlash over lock-up periods and high valuations. Additionally, suspicious early betting on Polymarket raised insider trading concerns, though unconfirmed.

Public Offering Cools Down, Rule Reversal, Prediction Market Rush: Infinex Plagued by Multiple Controversies

Taking into account the current market sentiment and financing environment, FELIX is likely to achieve a rebound in the short-term driven by spot funds. However, without sustained buying and positive community feedback, it will be hard to escape the negative impact of broader market corrections. It is advised to watch changes in trading volumes at key support areas and prudently assess the rationality of lock-up and distribution mechanisms. For investors preferring short-term operations, gradually locking in partial profits during the rebound is recommended; for medium- to long-term planners, closely monitor liquidity recovery and project ecosystem progress to manage end-of-cycle risks.

FELIX

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