Against a backdrop of recurring geopolitical risks and a revival in mainstream crypto assets, SHELL stabilized and rebounded from $0.0263. The $0.0290–$0.0295 range now provides effective support. If major coins do not experience a sharp pullback, there is potential for a short-term breakthrough of the $0.0315–$0.0320 resistance, with sufficient momentum for a main upward move. Strategy Recommendation: Ride the trend and hold positions, monitor $0.0290 as a stop loss; if price falls below, remain on the sidelines. If BTC fails to hold above $75,000, it could trigger heightened volatility and retracement risks—flexible position management is necessary.

Recently, the breakdown of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran has reignited concerns over oil supply risks, driving oil prices higher and intensifying risk-off sentiment. The U.S. dollar has seen modest benefits, while gold remains volatile at high levels. Although a short-term ceasefire window in the Middle East eased the impact of extreme supply shocks, the primarily political nature of concessions means that supply risks remain unresolved. This will continue to unsettle market risk appetite in the near term, exerting pressure on high-risk assets.

Analyst Charu Chanana from Saxo Bank states that the failure of US-Iran negotiations marks a setback, likely causing oil prices to rise again and risk sentiment to weaken. The Strait of Hormuz remains a significant risk despite not being fully closed. The US dollar may gain some safe-haven support, but a major surge is unlikely without new military escalations. Gold could benefit from renewed geopolitical hedging, though the market won't return to the worst inflation scenarios.

Analyst: Failed US-Iran negotiations may cause oil prices to rise again, risk sentiment could be hit once more.

The market experienced a rapid shift from "full escalation risk" to a "two-week ceasefire window" as Iran accepted a ceasefire, easing extreme energy supply shocks marginally. However, this shift is a temporary political concession rather than an end to conflict, delaying but not resolving supply risks. Structural policy divergences are widening, with the Fed maintaining high rates amid inflation concerns and Japan's wage growth prompting tightening, leading to a "non-coordinated tightening" and heightened market uncertainty dominated by geopolitical risks and fragile energy supply chains.

Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire alleviates supply shock but does not change structural pressure, policy divergence widens, market enters a "uncertainty premium-dominated" phase.

After significant leverage deleveraging, the Bitcoin market now operates with a lower risk structure, meaning even small amounts of capital can trigger price moves. Recently, prices broke through the $72,000 and $74,000 levels, indicating a temporary rebound in risk appetite. However, the $75,000 derivatives 'volatility release point' may intensify short-term swings. For Ethereum, derivative buying has notably returned, with bulls taking the initiative in the $2,000 battle, and spot ETFs seeing significant net inflows. The recovery of these major assets will lift overall market risk appetite and inject capital into high-beta tokens. Nonetheless, the heightened volatility in the derivatives environment also increases the risk of short-term pullbacks.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

Market data shows Ethereum buyers are returning, with bulls defending the $2000 support level. Since March 6, Ethereum's aggressive buying volume has remained positive, indicating a recovery in derivatives market demand. The buying pressure dominates at $104 million, marking the first such shift in Ethereum derivatives since the last bear market. Futures open interest nears a historic high, and spot Ethereum ETFs saw a $120 million net inflow, the highest since mid-March.

Analysis: Ethereum's proactive order consumption has remained positive since March, signaling a recovery in the derivatives market.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

After retracing from the $0.0328 high in mid-March, SHELL hit a bottom at $0.0263 at the end of March and began to consolidate. Since early April, it has shown a pattern of higher lows and higher highs, moving upward in a choppy fashion. Recently, price has established strong support in the $0.0290–$0.0295 range. Multiple tests of the $0.0315–$0.0320 resistance zone have resulted in pullbacks that found support, with trading volume increasing during rebounds. Short-term moving averages have formed a golden cross, signaling a bullish technical bias. Coupled with the recovery in risk appetite for major assets, SHELL shows strong momentum for near-term gains. However, attention should be paid to possible dual shocks to liquidity and sentiment if market volatility intensifies around the $75,000 Bitcoin mark.

MyShell

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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SHELL price today is 0.03, with a live price change of 7.65 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade SHELL on Bybit-eu.

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