The SHELL contract is currently being driven by both geopolitical disturbances and fluctuations in market risk appetite, exhibiting high beta characteristics. Bitcoin’s rebound has boosted overall sentiment in crypto assets. Technically, SHELL formed strong support in the 0.0267–0.0272 range and then surged with increased volume. In the short term, resistance lies at 0.0348–0.0350; if it breaks out with volume, the target could reach 0.04. Support below is at 0.03 and 0.028. It is recommended to increase positions on pullbacks in line with the trend, strictly control position size, and closely monitor the impact of marginal changes in macro risk appetite and liquidity on market volatility.

Recently, negotiations between the US and Iran failed to achieve a breakthrough, raising concerns about upstream energy supply disruptions and driving oil prices up, which suppressed risk appetite. However, the sudden reopening of the Hormuz Strait for commercial navigation on the 17th quickly eased market panic, reducing safe-haven demand for the US dollar and resulting in a short-term sentiment recovery for risk assets. Overall, geopolitical risk is shifting from an 'existence' to a 'form' game, with structural supply tensions and divergent expectations in commodities intertwining to create a pattern of sentiment dipping then rebounding. This contributes to two-way impacts on high-beta assets like the SHELL contract.

Analyst Charu Chanana from Saxo Bank states that the failure of US-Iran negotiations marks a setback, likely causing oil prices to rise again and risk sentiment to weaken. The Strait of Hormuz remains a significant risk despite not being fully closed. The US dollar may gain some safe-haven support, but a major surge is unlikely without new military escalations. Gold could benefit from renewed geopolitical hedging, though the market won't return to the worst inflation scenarios.

Analyst: Failed US-Iran negotiations may cause oil prices to rise again, risk sentiment could be hit once more.

Market sentiment is shifting from focusing on the existence of war to its form, with increased ceasefire signals reducing extreme supply disruption risks and lowering dollar safe-haven demand. However, U.S. sanctions and shipping restrictions on Iran's energy and metals sectors expand, maintaining structural supply constraints. This mismatch between easing expectations and actual supply tightening distorts pricing, weakening the dollar amid risk asset rebalancing. The crypto market shows liquidity redistribution within a defined range, reflecting a move from event-driven to structural mismatch-driven dynamics.

Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire expectations lower risk premium, but sanctions and shipping restrictions expand simultaneously, leading the market into a phase of "superficial easing, internal contraction" mismatch.

On April 17, Iran's foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial ships, triggering market volatility. Spot gold surged over 1% to above $4840, silver rose nearly 4% to $81.30/oz. WTI and Brent crude plunged 8% and 7% respectively. The US dollar index dropped over 20 points to 97.98, boosting non-dollar currencies. In crypto, Bitcoin rose above $76,000 and Ethereum neared $2400.

Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz, triggering market rally.

Bitcoin has recently continued its rebound, climbing above 72,000 after dropping to a four-week low on the 9th, and soon broke through the 76,000 mark, once approaching the 78,000 resistance zone. This rally stemmed both from the resurgence in risk appetite after geopolitical risks eased and from short-term battles around key moving averages and a negative gamma effect in derivatives markets. Breaking above $75,000 reduced off-exchange hedging pressure, helping further improve market sentiment. As a bellwether for crypto assets, Bitcoin’s strength has lifted bullish sentiment in the altcoin market, including SHELL.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

On the daily chart, SHELL has rebounded continuously after forming a double-bottom support in the 0.0267–0.0272 range, successively breaking above the key psychological level at 0.03 and closing at 0.03388 on April 17th on significant volume expansion. The short-term resistance zone is at 0.0348–0.0350, and stable trading with increased volume in this area could open up room for a move to 0.04. Key support has shifted to 0.03 and 0.028. It is recommended to consider light position increases on pullbacks to these levels, while watching for changes in macro liquidity and overall risk appetite that may affect contract volatility.

MyShell

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Trump: US-Iran talks progress as Iran suspends nuclear program

Trump warns of bombing if no Iran deal by April 21 ceasefire expiration

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

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MyShell Price: SHELL Live Price Today | SHELL Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit-eu

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SHELL price today is 0.03, with a live price change of 10.09 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade SHELL on Bybit-eu.

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