Although the current SWAP market shows initial signs of recovery, neither trading volume nor volatility has substantially increased, and short-term prices remain within a narrow range (it is recommended to focus on neutral strategy opportunities within a 20% volatility band). Binary options and traditional order book liquidity are limited in efficiency, so platforms that are first to introduce perpetual products and multi-asset compatibility will gain early liquidity and trading depth benefits during structural changes. In the short term, trading demand driven by synthetic asset rebalancing has released significant incremental flows for quality SWAPs (it's advised to optimize routing promptly to capture migrating liquidity), but structurally, liquidity preference is shifting towards long-term narrative sectors, with institutions and large capital showing stronger demand for themed, long-duration contracts. Overall, it is recommended to de-emphasize short-term directional bets and instead strongly support product innovation and ecosystem evolution, seizing the mid-to-long-term window of liquidity migration and trading volume expansion.

Recently, the market has shown preliminary signs of recovery, with multiple indicators suggesting that both buyers and sellers are tentatively re-entering after a period of waiting. However, trading depth has not fully recovered, and short-term prices are still oscillating within a range. After observing potential trend reversal signals, investors remain cautious and should avoid placing directional bets too early. Overall, the market is in a tug-of-war phase, with limited short-term bullish sentiment; confirmation of true upward momentum must await simultaneous expansion in trading volume and volatility.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Industry analysis points out that current binary options and order book models face deep-rooted bottlenecks in liquidity and capital efficiency, remaining stuck in a 'local optimum' dilemma. Breaking this deadlock requires an evolution to perpetual contract models, enabling continuous and efficient capital cycling and genuine market depth. For projects providing underlying liquidity or acting as trading intermediaries via SWAPs, early deployment of perpetual products will secure a first-mover advantage in undervalued sectors and promote the platform ecosystem's upgrade from inefficient matching to 24/7 continuous trading.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

As mainstream protocols successively retire legacy synthetic assets and guide users to convert their holdings, rebalancing demand is being rapidly and intensively released. This will result in significant swap trading volumes in the short term. If SWAP platforms possess high compatibility at the trading channel or routing level, they can absorb liquidity migration from holders of synthetic assets, using this window to significantly boost platform trading volume and fee revenues, translating sentiment into tangible gains.

Synthetix is deprecating all Synths on Optimism as part of its transition away from legacy systems. The blog details the timeline, recommended actions for Synth holders, and the redemption process after trading is disabled. Synth holders are strongly encouraged to swap their Synths before the deprecation takes full effect.

Deprecation of Synths on Optimism

Data shows that short-term market trading is highly concentrated, with nearly 90% of short-term contracts seeing almost no transactions within 24 hours. In contrast, longer-dated, narrative-driven sectors are the true liquidity centers. From the perspective of SWAPs, providing liquidity solely in short-term trading scenarios leads to a scarcity of demand; conversely, focusing on long-term themes such as macro politics or DeFi governance will more easily attract large hedging and arbitrage capital, achieving both greater depth and stability.

TrustSwap

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

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The US Treasury market is focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting, with the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year rising to 40%.

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