Bitcoin's current market structure is at a critical inflection point: continued net inflows from ETFs have strengthened institutional allocation momentum and provide long-term funding support, but in the short term, the market still faces cost-level pressure and violent swings driven by high leverage. The current price is probing above the cost range of 6-to-12-month holders; a decisive breakout above the $98,000 resistance would confirm a stronger bullish structure, targeting $107,000 to $112,000. Conversely, a break below the $90,000 support may trigger cascading liquidation pressure, potentially testing $87,100. It is recommended to follow institutional trends, focus on key range breakouts and leverage risks, strictly manage position discipline, and dynamically adjust long and short strategies with options tools.

Recently, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have significantly picked up, pushing overall market capitalization higher. Although investor sentiment remains in the 'extreme fear' zone, expectations of continued Fed easing have boosted the willingness of institutions and high-net-worth clients to allocate to crypto assets, strengthening market dominance for Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the short term, ongoing ETF inflows provide stable support for prices; in the long run, cheap liquidity and demand for inflation hedging remain the core drivers of Bitcoin's value retention.

Gate Ventures reports a rebound in the cryptocurrency market with BTC and ETH rising 4.13% and 6.61%, respectively, boosting total crypto market cap by 4.82%. ETF inflows improved, reversing two weeks of outflows, with BTC and ETH ETFs gaining approximately $459 million and $161 million. Despite price gains, market sentiment remains in "extreme fear." Mid- and small-cap assets outperformed, led by Memecoins. Ecosystem growth is driven by Ethereum scaling, institutional tokenized finance, and demand for compliant decentralized AI infrastructure. Four funding events raised about $17 million, mainly for data and infrastructure, signaling ongoing long-term development amid cautious short-term sentiment.

Gate Ventures: The cryptocurrency market rebounds, ETF fund inflows signal improvements in market structure.

Binance Research highlights that despite the Fed's easing policies, cautious investor sentiment has kept the crypto market declining. Bitcoin and Ethereum's dominance grows as asset managers increase holdings. January may mark a bearish trend reversal as investors shift from overvalued assets to crypto. In 2026, accelerated Fed easing and rising long-term premiums amid fiscal pressures could benefit Bitcoin, leveraging cheap liquidity and credit erosion. Altcoin ETFs see net inflows, contrasting Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs' outflows. Stablecoins surpass $1 billion market caps, becoming key global financial indicators.

Binance Report: Expectations of Accelerated Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 Are Positive for Bitcoin, January May Be a Turning Point for the Bearish Trend

Currently, the average purchase cost of short-term holders is above market price, and their loss status suppresses selling pressure, giving prices greater resilience during pullbacks. However, as prices recover toward these cost levels, buyer stop loss pressure may emerge, creating temporary resistance. Bitcoin is now probing above the key cost base of holders in the 6-to-12-month range; a clear breakout would signal structurally stronger bullish momentum, otherwise, the choppy downward trend since last month may persist.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

Bitcoin is testing a crucial on-chain resistance level tied to the six–twelve month holder cost basis after a five-day winning streak, its longest since October 2025. Analysts say surpassing this threshold would signal a major bullish trend shift, while failure would maintain the post-October 2025 downtrend. Rising Binance stablecoin reserves indicate potential buying power, but a declining Sharpe ratio suggests the recent price bounce is driven by positioning rather than fresh demand.

Bitcoin bulls face key on-chain test at six–twelve month cost basis

Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has risen more than 7%, once reaching highs near $95,000, but repeatedly facing resistance in the $94,600 and $98,000 zones. The $90,000 level has become an important short-term support; together with rising trading volume, a successful breakout above $98,000 could open upside targets of $107,000 or even $112,000. Options data show rising call demand and decreasing short bets—should spot market trading remain active, price may gain further upward momentum.

Bitcoin has recovered strongly, surpassing $93K amid geopolitical tensions, showcasing its appeal as a hedge asset. With decreasing liquidation pressure and positive technical indicators, Bitcoin's price demonstrates renewed bullish momentum, prompting speculation about a potential rise to $100K.

BTC Price Analysis: Is $100K Imminent for Bitcoin After 7% Weekly Increase?

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing key resistance at $98,242, following recent strong upward momentum after reclaiming $90,000. The $92,000 area acts as support, with critical resistance near $94,600 and the weekly Fibonacci level at $98K. Breaking above this could lead BTC toward higher resistance levels at $107K and $112K. Spot flows show mixed short-term sentiment but stronger positive inflows over 24 hours and 3 days, indicating growing medium-term investor confidence.

Bitcoin Price Analysis for Jan 6: BTC Must Breach the $98K Weekly Resistance

Bitcoin has surged close to $95,000, its highest in six weeks, driven by a 7.7% rise since the start of 2026. Despite this rally, perpetual contracts show flat positioning and weak U.S. spot demand, indicating cautious optimism. Options markets reflect a more positive shift, with reduced bearish bets and increased call purchases. Analysts note the rebound is partly due to short-covering, urging caution around key support levels and emphasizing the need for strong volume to sustain gains.

Bitcoin Gains Momentum as Traders Look for Confirmation

Overnight market leverage funding rates have turned positive, with long borrowing and perpetual contract activity concentrated. If price drops below the $89,200–$87,100 zone, over $1 billion in long positions could face forced liquidation; conversely, if price rises to $94,300–$95,600, several billions in short positions could be liquidated. High leverage not only amplifies price swings but also increases volatility. Traders should closely monitor these key energy ranges and implement robust position management strategies.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $94,311, the total short position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.798 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $86,127, the total long position liquidation on major CEX will amount to $1.834 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $94,311, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.798 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $95,649, the total short position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.532 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $87,099, the total long position liquidations on major CEXs will amount to $1.87 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $95,649, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.532 billion.

Bitcoin rebounded to around $90,500 after testing a key support near $89,200, marking its third consecutive day of pullback following a peak near $95,000. The decline is attributed to low trading volume and profit-taking. Market leverage is rising, with perpetual contract funding rates positive, indicating traders are using leverage to buy the dip. However, this concentrated long positioning increases the risk of forced liquidations and additional selling pressure if prices fall further.

Analysis: The key support level for Bitcoin is around $89,200, with traders still using leverage to buy the dip.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu (ETH)

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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