Boosted by improved macro sentiment, EUL saw active bullish moves driving a rebound. However, ETF outflows and tightening interest rate expectations led to capital withdrawal, heightening short-term volatility with a support test expected in the 1.36–1.38 range. Sector rotation and technical support provide a foundation for EUL to consolidate and bottom out in a volatile pattern. For the medium to long term, attention should be paid to marginal changes in ecosystem development and overall market liquidity. It is recommended to control leverage in the short term and monitor the effectiveness of the lower support; if the correction stabilizes, moderate allocation is possible. A break above the 1.50 resistance may present opportunities for mid-term allocation.

As geopolitical tensions eased, major global stock indices reached record highs, and market risk appetite rebounded significantly. In this environment, EUL displayed strong periodic performance, with its price rising from around 1.40 on May 3 to a May 4 peak of 1.517, accompanied by a notable increase in trading volume. This indicates that speculative sentiment and arbitrage demand fueled bullish activity in EUL. The overall loose macro environment provided a tailwind to risk assets, forming a favorable setup in the short term.

Global markets surged as geopolitical tensions eased, with major indices hitting record highs and the Korean KOSPI soaring 6.45%. In tech, semiconductor and AI-related stocks rallied strongly. Bitcoin broke $80,000, driven by institutional ETF inflows, though on-chain activity showed low retail participation. Opinions diverge on Bitcoin's outlook, with some seeing a fragile rally and others bullish due to strong accumulation and ETF demand. TON ecosystem also gained momentum after Telegram's increased involvement.

Trading Moment: Global Asset Frenzy, Bitcoin Breaks $80,000, $84,000 CME Gap Awaiting Refill.

Following a pause in consecutive net inflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs, market divergence on the future path of interest rates intensified, resulting in heightened volatility for risk assets. Starting May 5, EUL entered a correction, with its price dropping from 1.403 to a low of 1.356 within two days, breaking below the 1.40 level and reflecting diminished short-term bullish confidence. As tightening expectations intensified due to improving US employment data, capital outflows accelerated, and the 1.38–1.36 support range may be tested in the near term.

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 after five consecutive days of net inflows into spot ETFs ended, signaling a cooling rebound from February lows. Stronger-than-expected US April jobs data heightened concerns over energy-driven inflation limiting rate cuts. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows, reflecting reduced institutional risk appetite. Rising US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices up, offsetting some risk asset support. Derivatives suggest prolonged hawkish rate expectations, with retail participation low and market momentum weak, posing a risk of Bitcoin retesting $75,000–$78,000 support.

Analysis: Bitcoin surged then fell back below $80K, with ETF outflows and geopolitical risks jointly suppressing market sentiment.

Driven by expectations surrounding AI and chip cycles, sectors such as storage technology performed strongly, boosting sentiment in digital assets. EUL returned above 1.46 on May 8 and tested resistance at 1.48 on May 10. From a technical perspective, the previous high at 1.50 serves as short-term resistance, while moving averages around the 1.40–1.42 range provide solid support. Thanks to sector interconnection and matching trading volume, EUL is mainly consolidating and bottoming out in the short term. Its medium-to-long-term performance will depend on ecosystem progress and liquidity conditions, with continued structural opportunities possible.

Euler

British Pound: Growth slowdown and BoE tightening – BNP Paribas

Norwegian Krone: Norges Bank's surprise hike and risk support – HSBC

Eurozone: Higher inflation and ECB hikes projected – BNP Paribas

Brazilian economists raised their interest rate forecast for next year as inflation comes under pressure from resilient domestic demand and an energy shock caused by the Iran war.

Japanese Yen: Intervention and BoJ policy in focus – HSBC

Fed: Extended pause before late 2026 cut – UOB

2024–2026: Asset repricing amid persistently high interest rates

Mitsubishi UFJ: Stalemate in US-Iran negotiations intensifies inflation concerns, causing gold prices to drop.

Koehler: Unless the situation significantly improves, interest rate hikes are inevitable.

The European Central Bank will raise interest rates twice this year as the Iran war drives inflation higher, a Bloomberg survey shows.

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