The current market is experiencing low-level fluctuations. Although liquidity has rebounded, a trend reversal has not been confirmed, and the overall macro environment remains bearish. Institutional and large investors are increasing their high-leverage short positions, indicating a heightened need for downside hedging. This suggests that shorting tools such as SHORT stand to benefit from increased volatility and institutional operations. It is recommended to be mindful of the potential risks of a pullback following a short-term rebound. SHORT can serve as a medium- to short-term hedging allocation. Aggressive investors may consider positioning near the upper range of the price channel, controlling their positions, and paying close attention to liquidity and slippage risks. For the long term, continual improvement of product ecosystem and trading depth should be monitored.

Recently, signs of increased liquidity have appeared in the market amid low-level consolidation, but it is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. Analysts point out that while a short-term rebound may unfold, the overall macro cycle remains bearish, and investors should be wary of the adjustment risk following the rebound. From a technical perspective, there has been active trading in the lower price regions, with intensified short-term fluctuations, suggesting that bull and bear forces are nearly balanced. Short-term sentiment is likely to remain volatile, and demand for shorting tools will fluctuate in sync with such volatility.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

A high-frequency whale on Hyperliquid established a short position of approximately 20,000 ETH with 3x leverage, boasting a historical win rate of over 80%. This suggests professional investors’ growing demand for downside hedging. Such sizable short positions underline the practical value of shorting tools; when market volatility increases, SHORT—as a contract tracking short strategies—stands to benefit directly from hedging activities by institutional-level capital.

A whale transferred about 30 million USDC to Hyperliquid to short approximately 20,000 ETH with 3x leverage, valued at around $63.63 million USD at an opening price of $3,136. Currently, the position shows a floating loss of about $900,000 USD. Historically, this address has made around 70 trades in three months, with an 83% win rate and cumulative profits of approximately $20.95 million USD, employing a high-frequency trading style with an average holding time of 24 hours.

A certain whale shorted approximately $63.63 million USD worth of ETH with 3x leverage, and is currently experiencing a floating loss of approximately $0.90 million USD.

Polymarket statistics show that liquidity in the crypto short-term derivatives market is significantly lower than in other categories, with a few high-frequency contracts accounting for the majority of trading volume. This means limited trading depth and relatively high slippage costs. For SHORT to continuously attract investors in such an environment, it needs to strengthen its ecosystem and improve trading depth. This will ensure efficient hedging and low-cost execution during market volatility, providing a solid foundation for long-term value.

Bermuda Shorts

The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's assessment of rising inflation and its policy path.

Reminder: Please pay close attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

Australia’s inflation remained above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band as higher fuel costs from Middle East supply disruptions compounded already-elevated price pressures to keep policymakers on a tightening path.

Uncertainty around the economic outlook and a leadership transition at the US central bank loom large over this week’s meeting of Federal Reserve officials, who are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Economists: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, waiting for changes in employment and inflation.

Mexico’s central bank will consider one more interest rate cut at its May meeting that may bring an end to the easing cycle it started two years ago, Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said.

The Fed is set to hold rates in what’s likely Powell’s last meeting as chair - then it’ll be Kevin Warsh’s turn in what has become a political hotseat under Donald Trump

UAE Quits OPEC After 59 Years, BTC Slides Below $76K Amid Hormuz Supply Shock

Iran launches airstrikes on US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar

Ukrainian drone attack ignites Tuapse oil refinery, escalating energy strikes

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