CUSD is currently in a state of liquidity equilibrium and narrow-range fluctuation. In the short term, trading activity has increased, driven by arbitrage funds, with prices remaining stable within the pegged range. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk brought by arbitrage profit-taking. In the medium to long term, as market competition intensifies and persistent selling pressure continues, for CUSD to increase its market share, it is recommended to strengthen investments in the pegging mechanism and ecosystem development, capitalizing on the window of mainstream stablecoin fund outflow. However, caution is needed against structural downward pressure in a broadly bearish macro environment.

Recently, the market has returned to a stage dominated by internal capital flows and changes in liquidity, with frequent large-scale fund switches between stablecoins in the short term. Judging from available candlestick charts, CUSD’s price has not seen a volume breakout and has generally fluctuated within a narrow range near its peg level, indicating that buy and sell pressures are currently balanced and liquidity has not formed a unilateral drive.

The USDC/USDT premium index in the market turning positive means that selling pressure on the leading stablecoins has eased, and the release of liquidity brings short-term rebound expectations. By extension, CUSD is likely to see a return of arbitrage funds during this phase, with trading volumes possibly rising slightly. Sentiment is leaning positive, but caution is still needed regarding the risk of price pullbacks due to profit-taking.

Although short-term liquidity has improved, there is still persistent selling pressure in the medium to long term. The stablecoin sector is experiencing intense internal competition. To maintain an edge in liquidity and network effect, CUSD needs to continuously optimize its pegging mechanism and enhance ecosystem depth. If outflow pressure on mainstream stablecoins intensifies, CUSD may benefit from a relative influx opportunity; however, overall, the market remains influenced by a bearish macroeconomic trend.

Cap USD

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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