In early 2026, high market volatility will continue to dominate the performance of risk assets. Policy and regulatory developments remain the key variables affecting CIPHER's volatility and capital flows. In the short term, dynamic staged entries/exits and strict stop-loss strategies are recommended to guard against sudden pullback risks. For the medium to long term, attention should be given to sentiment recovery windows brought by the implementation of U.S. bills and the clarification of macro-regulatory boundaries. The wave of institutionalization strengthens the importance of compliance and mainstream resources, and CIPHER should accelerate cooperation with top-tier platforms to improve overall competitiveness. As capital becomes increasingly rational and prefers practical application projects, speeding up ecosystem implementation and expanding functionalities are expected to raise valuation benchmarks and attract mainstream investment. Focus on the $2.80-$3.15 support range; if stability is maintained and positive developments arise, a breakthrough to the year's relative high is anticipated.

Recent studies indicate that the market will experience a high-volatility pattern under the alternating influence of policy and major event windows. This means prices may fluctuate sharply in the short term, requiring traders to maintain highly flexible risk controls and position management. For CIPHER, this environment offers short-term trading opportunities but also increases the risk of abrupt pullbacks. It is advised to employ multi-level staged entries/exits, strict stop-losses, and dynamic position control in volatile conditions to cope with rapid price swings.

Matrixport's research suggests that 2026 may be a year of high volatility in pricing, with outcomes determined by event windows. The market is unlikely to show a single directional trend, as policy and crypto events alternate in dominance, making flexibility a key competitive advantage.

Matrixport Research: 2026 Could Be a Year of High Volatility Pricing, Event Windows Determine Outcomes

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Market consensus holds that whether key U.S. bills can be passed and stock market stability maintained will be the core variables for risk asset performance throughout the year. If regulatory uncertainty intensifies, overall risk appetite will be constrained, and small to mid-cap tokens like CIPHER may face increased short-term selling pressure. However, from a long-term value perspective, once regulatory boundaries are clarified and a stable macro environment is established, compliant and high-quality projects will have greater growth potential. It is recommended to monitor policy progress and position accordingly.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan highlighted three key challenges for the crypto market to sustain its 2026 growth: avoiding large-scale market crashes like the October 2025 futures liquidation, passing the US Clarity Act currently under congressional review, and maintaining stock market stability to prevent drag on risk assets. Overcoming these challenges could allow the early 2026 gains in Bitcoin and Ethereum to continue throughout the year.

Bitwise CIO: The Crypto Market Must Overcome Three Major Challenges to Continue Rising Through 2026

As the industry transitions from extreme volatility to regulatory institutionalization, capital is rapidly concentrating in the regulated CeFi sector and a wave of mergers and acquisitions is brewing. Major players’ resources and compliance advantages are prominent, while smaller projects face marginalization risks. The CIPHER team must accelerate cooperation with leading exchanges and custodians, strengthening compliance and business integration capabilities to secure a more stable market position in industry reshuffling.

The crypto industry is transitioning from extreme volatility to institutionalization: Bitcoin's market value fell 8%, underperforming gold and tech stocks. Capital is increasingly concentrated in compliant CeFi sectors, with intensified structural differentiation in the primary market. A wave of mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs signals accelerated consolidation in 2026, where larger players will absorb smaller ones.

RootData 2025 Web3 Industry Annual Report

Market sentiment is shifting from meme coins and short-term speculation toward functional tokens with practical applications. Themes like AI and DeFi have recently outperformed, with single-day gains over 6%. In this capital style rotation, projects displaying clear real-world use and ecosystem synergy can easily attract mainstream investment. If CIPHER can demonstrate tangible progress in core applications or ecosystem expansion, it may gain a valuation premium from this trend.

On January 6, with Bitcoin holding above $93,000, the crypto market saw funds shift from Meme coins to tokens with practical applications, notably AI-themed tokens. Functional indices like DeFi and metaverse rose over 4%, while Meme coin indices remained flat or declined. Render Network surged about 20%, and other AI tokens gained over 6%. This trend aligns with optimism in AI and tech stocks, though geopolitical risks and US employment data may impact sentiment. Continued Bitcoin ETF inflows are crucial for further gains.

Analysis: The crypto market's rebound momentum strengthens, with AI concept tokens outperforming Meme coins.

Meme coin FISH reached a market cap of $12 million with a 35.7% 24-hour increase. Bitcoin briefly fell below $91,000 amid doubts about the crypto market rebound. US crypto stocks mostly declined, except Strategy, which rose 4.43%. Post-US employment data, the Fed's January rate cut probability decreased. Falcon launched an off-chain Bitcoin yield vault with an expected annual return of 3-5%. Perp DEX airdrops and Solana's "invisible tax" on users were also highlighted.

Key market information gap on January 8, must see! | Alpha Morning Report.

Cipher

The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's assessment of rising inflation and its policy path.

Reminder: Please pay close attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

Australia’s inflation remained above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band as higher fuel costs from Middle East supply disruptions compounded already-elevated price pressures to keep policymakers on a tightening path.

Uncertainty around the economic outlook and a leadership transition at the US central bank loom large over this week’s meeting of Federal Reserve officials, who are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Economists: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, waiting for changes in employment and inflation.

Mexico’s central bank will consider one more interest rate cut at its May meeting that may bring an end to the easing cycle it started two years ago, Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said.

The Fed is set to hold rates in what’s likely Powell’s last meeting as chair - then it’ll be Kevin Warsh’s turn in what has become a political hotseat under Donald Trump

UAE Quits OPEC After 59 Years, BTC Slides Below $76K Amid Hormuz Supply Shock

Iran launches airstrikes on US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar

Ukrainian drone attack ignites Tuapse oil refinery, escalating energy strikes

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