The current HOGE market is experiencing moderate expansion, driven by a resonance of fundamentals and market sentiment, which is likely to keep price ranges steadily upward in the short term. However, limited liquidity and sensitive position changes by whales may amplify event-driven price volatility. Investors are advised to closely monitor key milestones, such as platform launches, within the next month. If HOGE fails to hold above the recent upward resistance level of $0.00038, leverage and position sizes should be strictly controlled, and profits should be taken in a timely manner to avoid unilateral declines and unexpected liquidity risks. Medium-term strategies should continue to balance trend following and value screening, while remaining cautious of sentiment-driven market corrections.

Recent on-chain data and quantitative indicators show that the crypto market has moved out of last year’s deleveraging phase and entered a stage of moderate expansion. Capital inflows are mainly spot-driven, and open interest is increasing steadily, which lowers the risk of forced liquidations. Optimistic sentiment is gradually rising, but the rally is not yet overly dependent on high leverage, maintaining a healthy overall structure. This provides stable support for the prices of major assets and small-cap tokens.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

From a macro and industry perspective, several major institutions and investors unanimously believe that a new bull market is emerging. Value-based investing and trend-following strategies are gaining strength simultaneously. Although there may be short-term fluctuations, the overall trend remains positive. In such an environment, small-cap tokens typically exhibit significant premium potential during phases of ample liquidity, but one should also be wary of corrections brought on by cyclic shifts in sentiment.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Recently, a major whale heavily accumulated a mainstream altcoin ahead of a major platform launch, tolerating high unrealized losses, and was forced to liquidate as prices corrected. This behavior highlights the speculative logic of large holders before hot events. As HOGE is a token with relatively limited liquidity, short-term market trends are prone to being affected by large holders’ position shifts. If event-driven expectations are not realized, sudden sell-offs or rising fee costs could occur. Traders should closely watch whale actions and carefully manage positions and leverage to reduce the risk of one-sided volatility.

Since January 2, HYPE has gained over 13%, reaching a high of $27.4. The largest long whale on-chain, holding about $36.44 million with an average price of $38.6 and liquidation price at $20, has reduced its unrealized loss from $20 million to $17 million. This whale, the biggest long holder on Hyperliquid, opened a large position before Robinhood announced HYPE spot trading, leading to community suspicion of insider information.

HYPE has recently seen a significant increase, but the largest on-chain HYPE long position is still stuck with an unrealized loss of 17 million due to an average cost of $38.

Since January 2, HYPE has gained over 13%, reaching a high of $27.4. The largest long whale on-chain, holding about $36.44 million with an average price of $38.6, still faces a $17 million unrealized loss, down from $20 million. This whale, suspected of insider trading before HYPE's Robinhood listing, has incurred over $1 million in funding fee losses over two months.

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