The current sentiment in the XMT market is starting to recover; prices are consolidating within a range but lack an effective breakout with increased volume. Short-term liquidity is notably deficient, leading to heightened slippage and spread risks. Amid sluggish trading and pronounced market segmentation, short-term operations should prioritize 'position reduction and gap risk control,' strictly managing trading slippage and stop-losses, and avoiding chasing highs. Medium to long-term capital can focus on areas with relatively ample liquidity, accumulate positions gradually on dips, and prioritize contracts over 30 days to reduce impact cost. Strategically, close monitoring of subsequent changes in trading volume is advised to capture trend confirmation signals.

Recently, XMT prices have been consolidating within a narrow range, and the candlestick structure has not shown a significant directional breakout; both bulls and bears remain in a balanced tug-of-war. Some analyses on the news side suggest that the crypto market is showing signs of improvement, indicating that market sentiment is cautiously recovering from its bottom. However, in the short term, more expansion in trading volume is needed to confirm the continuation of the trend. Investors should watch for sudden spikes in trading volume and shifts in buy-sell pressure as signals to judge whether the market is truly moving out of consolidation.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Latest market data reveals that over 60% of short-term contracts (within 1 day) had zero trades within the past 24 hours, highlighting extreme liquidity scarcity for crypto assets in brief intervals. Such depth deficiency increases risks of gap jumps and widening spreads, adding significant slippage costs for high-frequency and short-term trading. In contrast, long-term contracts (over 30 days) demonstrate liquidity approximately 45 times higher than short-term contracts, providing greater trading stability. Given the segmented liquidity structure, short-term strategies must tightly control entry price spread and stop-loss plans, while medium to long-term positioning can effectively reduce market impact costs.

MetalSwap

BOJ Holds Rates at 0.75% as Nikkei and Crypto Markets Slip

Fed Interest Rate Tomorrow: What to Expect, Will It Be Powell’s Last Speech

The Bank of Japan left its rate unchanged in a split vote that increased the likelihood of a hike in June. But the weak yen saw only a brief respite as Governor Kazuo Ueda cast doubt on the economy’s outlook.

Institution: Bank of Japan's "policy reaction function" has changed, yen movement becomes key to rate hikes.

Kazuo Ueda: Interest rate hike decisions and quantitative tightening adjustments will be conducted separately.

Bank of Japan Governor: Interest rate hikes necessary if supply shock triggers secondary ripple effects

Fitch: Inflation is deeply entrenched; expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to 1.5% this year

Three Bank of Japan members call for a rate hike; yen rises while bitcoin falls

Fed Turning Point: Reshaping the Interest Rate Decision-Making Framework Amidst Personnel Turmoil

Dalio: The U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and cutting interest rates would be a policy mistake.

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