Under the dual pressure of declining global risk appetite and pullbacks in major coins, NKN faces short-term stress, with its current trading center shifting down to the 0.01116–0.01220 USDT range. If the key support at 0.01116 USDT fails, there is a risk of testing the 0.0108 USDT low; if the price stabilizes and volume picks up, a short-term rebound may be expected. Overall, it is advised to remain cautious, monitor support effectiveness and changes in the external liquidity environment, control risk for base positions, and only consider chasing the rally after confirmation of improved volume and macro sentiment.

Recently, a sudden large-scale selloff of long-term Japanese government bonds boosted U.S. Treasury yields, and a 'sell America' sentiment emerged in the U.S. stock market, prompting capital to rush into safe-haven assets. Once global capital flows turn to hard currencies and gold, the liquidity of risk assets is severely squeezed. NKN saw a sharp gap-down on January 20, touching a low of 0.01222 USDT, down more than 6% from the previous day’s closing price. This reflects the rapid elevation of risk premium for small-cap tokens in the context of tightening macro liquidity, with a bearish market sentiment prevailing.

Bitcoin and leading cryptocurrencies began to retreat after hitting highs last week; bullish sentiment in the futures market cooled, and open interest in some altcoin futures dropped significantly. NKN was also affected by this follow-the-leader decline, and after a strong bullish candle on January 19, it posted three consecutive bearish candles, indicating fading bullish momentum. On January 21, NKN saw a mild rebound to 0.01267 USDT, but trading volume was notably lower than the huge volume seen during the previous dip. In the short term, capital is evidently cautious or in withdrawal mode, with market sentiment remaining conservative.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have declined, erasing last week's gains up to $98,000. The sell-off aligns with US stock futures, with Nasdaq 100 futures down over 1.9% and S&P 500 futures down 1.6%. Bitcoin futures open interest remains stable, but DOGE, ZEC, and ADA futures show significant declines, indicating capital outflow. Traders price bearish options on BTC and ETH higher than bullish ones, with a 30% chance of BTC falling below $80,000.

Analysis: Bitcoin failed to break higher, with the derivatives market signaling bearish sentiment and pricing in a deeper pullback risk.

On the daily chart, NKN reached a high of 0.01405 USDT on January 16 before entering a downward consolidation, repeatedly testing support at the 0.01116–0.01147 USDT range and seeing some stabilization. However, price action overall remains below the lower boundary of the medium-term rising channel. If bullish players are able to hold the 0.01116 USDT support and push back with increasing volume, a short-term return to the resistance near 0.0122 USDT is expected; if this support breaks, caution is advised with respect to the next historical low support at 0.0108 USDT. The relative strength index (RSI) has dipped near 30, with no clear oversold signal yet; further judgment of a reversal opportunity requires validation by trading volume and external risk sentiment.

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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