PBTC benefits in the short term from Bitcoin spot decentralization and price support, exhibiting strong performance. Currently, the bulls are driven by both technical and capital factors, with a key support level around the $38,000 range. If PBTC remains stably above this level, it has the momentum to challenge previous highs ($42,000–$43,500). Close attention should be paid to market sentiment shifts and liquidity divergence, as short-term volatility may intensify due to changes in capital flows. Strategy advice: hold or buy on dips near the support zone; aggressive traders may participate in range-bound volatility. Key stop-loss should be set below $37,000 to guard against repeated fluctuations. In the medium to long term, focus on allocation value and moderate position diversification to address market uncertainty.

Recently, the concentration of native Bitcoin holdings in critical price ranges has decreased while prices have risen simultaneously, indicating a more decentralized market chip distribution and weakened selling pressure. At the same time, substantial buying has gathered at key price levels, providing strong support at the upper end of the range. Against this backdrop, PBTC, as a BTC derivative asset, receives technical support for its bullish trend. If the overall BTC price remains above the support level, PBTC is likely to follow upward and test previous highs.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

Signs of improvement are beginning to appear in the current crypto market, with short-term sentiment expected to shift from cautious to cautiously optimistic. For PBTC, participation and trading activity in derivatives are likely to increase as overall confidence recovers, creating opportunities for short-term trading. However, continual data verification is needed—if market improvement momentum is insufficient, repeated fluctuations could occur.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

From a liquidity distribution perspective, short-term crypto market activity remains below the overall average, with trading volume highly concentrated in a few contracts. In contrast, long-term political and macro-hedging themes are attracting increased attention. This structural differentiation suggests that PBTC may face intensified volatility from capital shifting in the short term, while in the medium to long term, its asset allocation attributes as a Bitcoin tracker are more prominent, potentially attracting value-oriented capital.

Purple Bitcoin

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The Federal Reserve's Musalem: The oil shock may keep core inflation around 3%, and interest rates will remain unchanged for a while.

US economic activity continued to increase at a slight-to-modest pace across most regions as the war with Iran generated a new wave of uncertainty and higher energy costs, the Federal Reserve said.

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Trump says Powell will be fired if he does not leave office promptly; the probability of Walsh officially taking office before May 15 is 43%.

U.S. Treasury Secretary: Core inflation is trending downward, and the Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates further.

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