The current surge in risk appetite is putting short-term pressure on the VIX, which is expected to remain rangebound within the 13-15 zone, making a significant rebound unlikely. However, in the medium-to-long term, uncertainties regarding Federal Reserve policy dynamics and key personnel changes may serve as implicit support, allowing volatility to stabilize gradually at low levels with upside potential. It is recommended to reduce short-term long volatility positions and accumulate deferred VIX longs on pullbacks to hedge against potential policy risks.

Recently, US equity markets are approaching all-time highs, with the S&P 500 posting gains for seven consecutive months and on track for an eighth straight win. The ongoing rally reflects investors' heightened preference for risk assets at year-end, which has exerted short-term pressure on the volatility index (VIX). Buoyant market sentiment has concentrated chase-on demand in equities, diverting funds from volatility strategies toward directional positions, resulting in reduced VIX volume and price. Given the current lack of external black swan events, demand for hedging or panic remains minimal, making any sharp short-term VIX rebound unlikely.

U.S. stocks are near historic highs, with the S&P 500 just 1% shy of 7,000 points and poised for an eighth consecutive monthly gain, the longest streak since 2017-2018. Market momentum favors bulls unless an external shock occurs. Investors focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and potential rate cuts, as well as Trump's nomination for a new Fed chair. While tech stocks struggle, other sectors show strength, indicating a rotation into more moderately valued areas.

The market focuses on Federal Reserve policies and sector rotation, with U.S. stocks sprinting to record highs.

Despite the short-term optimism, the market's attention is turning to the upcoming release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the nomination of a new Fed Chair. These two sources of uncertainty are expected to provide medium-to-long-term support to volatility assets: Should the minutes indicate continued caution regarding rate hikes or suggest that rate cut expectations might be brought forward within the year, markets may be prompted to reassess risk premium. If personnel changes result in a policy shift, this could heighten the pressure on risk assets and lift the VIX baseline. As a result, as the market moves into this policy window period, the VIX is likely to form a bottoming process at low levels.

VIX777

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Market pricing shows the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike has risen to 11%.

Summary of key points from Powell's last press conference as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Powell: Policy likely to remain in neutral range

Powell: Maintaining the interest rate unchanged is the right decision.

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