YB experienced a short-term rebound driven by easing geopolitical tensions and favorable macro factors, quickly breaking through the 0.124 and 0.14 levels, with bullish sentiment resurging. However, the derivatives market remains cautious in terms of capital flows, with the perpetual contract funding rate staying negative, indicating rising demand for downside protection and potentially increasing short-term volatility. It is recommended to closely watch the $0.155–0.16 resistance zone and volume sustainability. If upward momentum fades, there is a higher probability of retreating to the $0.13 and $0.125 support levels. In the current intensified long-short battle, it is advisable to follow the trend with high selling and low buying, control leverage and drawdown risk, and maintain a cautiously optimistic strategy.

Easing tensions in the Middle East, together with the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements, jointly boosted risk assets, driving short-term rebounds in Bitcoin and mainstream cryptocurrencies. YB rebounded in tandem, initiating a rally from the early-April low near 0.1028, successively breaking through the short-term resistance levels at 0.116 and 0.124, indicating that bullish sentiment has returned to the market.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

Although buying strength is evident in the spot market, the derivatives sector remains cautious, with perpetual contract funding rates staying negative and increasing demand for downside protection in the options market. This situation is similar to Bitcoin's negative gamma effect at key price points. When YB approaches the 0.14–0.15 range, fierce confrontation between bulls and bears may trigger larger price swings. In the short term, attention should be paid to capital flow dynamics and volume changes, and beware of rapid pullbacks.

Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% weekly, driven mainly by spot buying rather than broad risk appetite. Derivatives markets show caution: perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest declines, and options indicate higher demand for downside protection. This suggests a rebound, not a trend reversal, amid ongoing risk aversion and cautious sentiment despite gains.

Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

On the daily chart, after consolidating for several days in the $0.113–0.12 range, YB saw a surge in volume and broke out consecutively on April 16 and 17, peaking near $0.147 on the 17th—a new monthly high. If volume continues to hold, short-term attention should focus on the $0.155–0.16 resistance zone; if bullish momentum weakens, pullbacks to $0.13 or $0.125 will be key supports. Overall, after the breakout to new highs, be cautious of profit-taking pressure and maintain a cautiously optimistic stance.

Yield Basis

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Trump: US-Iran talks progress as Iran suspends nuclear program

Trump warns of bombing if no Iran deal by April 21 ceasefire expiration

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

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