Recently, MVL has benefited from a revival in risk appetite and the momentum driven by Bitcoin, with significant short-term sentiment support. The price range is between 0.00133—0.00138. It is recommended to monitor volume changes and range breakouts, and beware of subsequent pressure from macro interest rate hikes and tightening liquidity. For mid- to long-term allocation, it is necessary to track macro liquidity, net ETF flows, and on-chain profit indicators simultaneously, to avoid blind additional positions when there is a lack of bullish signals, in order to strictly control pullback risks.

Recently, the easing of global geopolitical risks and growing disagreements over the path of rate hikes have led to a phase of risk appetite recovery, boosting digital asset prices. Bitcoin and Ethereum have taken the lead, attracting capital back to the market; however, expectations of tighter policy still persist and pose limitations for the future market. As a more volatile small- to mid-cap asset, MVL has seen short-term sentiment support in this context, but vigilance is required against the dual pressures of macro interest rates and tightening liquidity.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

Bitcoin broke through its highest level in nearly four weeks and is approaching key moving average resistance, prompting the market style to shift back toward risk appetite. Since April 6, MVL has seen a significant rebound accompanied by a surge in trading volume, with its price rapidly climbing from 0.001298 to 0.00135. The upper 0.001376 level remains a heavy resistance. After several rounds of volatile consolidation, trading volume failed to continue expanding, suggesting short-term range trading will dominate, with focus on the 0.00133—0.00138 support and resistance.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Historical backtesting shows that only a few macro and on-chain indicators within digital assets have consistent reliability. As a small-cap asset, MVL is more sensitive to liquidity changes. If ETF net inflows slow down or primary trend indicators show a lack of bullish signals, MVL may continue to face pullback pressure. It is recommended to synchronize macro liquidity, ETF fund flows, and on-chain profit sentiment as verification before allocating, in order to control mid- to long-term pullback risks.

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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