Currently, the US is affected by a combination of dollar pricing uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations. After retreating from the 0.00626 high, prices are now consolidating and seeking a bottom within the 0.00430~0.00460 range in the short term. Concentrated release of macroeconomic negatives and persistent decline in trading volume have dampened investor sentiment. The short-term trend now depends on marginal changes in Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical developments. From a strategy perspective, it is advised to remain cautious, pay close attention to liquidity risks, and watch for capital inflows driven by stablecoin expansion and expectations of regulatory compliance. If there is a continued lack of active incremental capital, US will likely remain in a weak sideways pattern. Key support is at 0.00430; if breached, further downside space will open up.

With the dollar pricing mechanism now shifting to focus on policy credibility and the liquidity path as core drivers, the market has experienced several false breakouts and liquidity mismatches. Reviewing the daily chart, after US touched 0.00626 on April 2 and continued to retreat, it is evident that short-term market performance has shown significant emotion-driven selling pressure due to dollar pricing uncertainty. Trading volume surged sharply on that day but quickly fell back, reflecting investors’ lack of confidence in a sustained trend and intensifying short-term volatility.

The market is shifting focus from risk events to how the US dollar prices these events, entering a phase of exchange rate-driven risk redistribution. The dollar's core drivers now hinge on policy credibility and liquidity paths rather than just interest rate differentials or safe-haven demand. With geopolitical tensions and inflation influencing policy, the dollar remains volatile without a clear trend, impacting Bitcoin's price action by amplifying false breakouts and liquidity shifts rather than driving a sustained trend.

Bitunix analyst: The US dollar's pricing power swings between policy credibility and the outcome of the war, with the market entering a risk redistribution phase dominated by exchange rates.

The repeated setbacks in US-Iran negotiations and the lack of substantive easing in conflict risks, combined with the cancellation of talks and the subsequent extension of a temporary ceasefire, have put significant pressure on market risk appetite. On April 23–24, US tried to find support through a rebound near 0.00475, but the stalemate in regional geopolitics failed to maintain the upward move; prices then retreated to consolidate around 0.00430. This reflects investors’ uncertainty and their wait-and-see attitude regarding future developments.

Polymarket's probability of the US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before April 30 has dropped to 18%, a 17% decrease in 24 hours. The event contract's total transaction volume has exceeded $35 million. Rising tensions include Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz and displaying missiles, while the US threatens continued military action after the ceasefire expires. The market is based on official US and Iranian government information.

Polymarket's probability of "US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before April 30" drops to 18%, down 17% in 24 hours.

President Donald Trump has indefinitely extended a US ceasefire with Iran. However, several key issues remain unresolved that both sides must address to achieve a lasting peace agreement.

President Donald Trump indefinitely extended a US ceasefire with Iran. There are some key issues the two sides will need to resolve if they’re to agree to a lasting peace deal. Here’s what to know.

In April 2026, the global crypto market experienced structural divergence and phased recovery amid three major factors. Following the temporary US-Iran ceasefire agreement effective April 9, significant disagreements emerged—while the US claimed full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran limited daily passage to about 10 ships (less than 8% of pre-war levels). Negotiations broke down on April 12, causing market volatility.

Crypto Market Macro Report: Ceasefire Negotiations, Fed Leadership Change, and Accelerated Institutionalization

Japan’s corporate services price index surged beyond expectations and crude oil prices spiked due to disruptions in maritime transport, strengthening global inflation expectations and delaying easing from major central banks. Following the announcement of this news, US price quickly dropped below the key 0.00520 support and fell to 0.00492, with corresponding intraday trading volume increasing. This indicates a concentrated realization of macroeconomic downsides, exerting downward pressure on risk assets, especially those with relatively limited liquidity such as contract products.

On April 24, the crypto market weakened with BTC hovering around $77,800, slowing its rise from $65,000. ETH fell about 0.8%, underperforming BTC. Market pressure stemmed from Japan's March corporate service price index rising 3.1%, exceeding expectations and signaling possible BOJ rate hikes, strengthening the yen and risking global asset sell-offs. Additionally, ongoing Iran conflict disrupted oil transport, pushing WTI crude over $96/barrel, raising inflation concerns and limiting Fed rate cut prospects.

Analysis: BTC's upward momentum is hindered as Japanese inflation data and the Iran conflict trigger market risk aversion.

BTC's upward momentum slowed near $77,800 after rising from $65,000, with ETH also declining about 0.8%. Market pressure stems from Japan's March corporate service price index rising 3.1% YoY, suggesting possible BOJ rate hikes and a stronger yen, which may trigger risk asset sell-offs. Additionally, ongoing Iran conflict disrupts oil transport, pushing WTI crude over 40% higher to $96/barrel, sustaining inflation concerns and limiting Fed rate cut prospects.

Analysis: BTC's upward momentum is hindered as Japanese inflation data and the Iran war trigger market risk aversion sentiment.

Buying sentiment in the US domestic market is gradually recovering, and short-term holders are no longer at obvious losses, indicating a marginal recovery in investor sentiment. Meanwhile, the total stablecoin supply is reaching all-time highs and is expected to benefit from regulatory frameworks being put in place, thereby improving the overall liquidity base. Currently, US is consolidating within the 0.00430~0.00460 range, echoing the liquidity dynamics under the ongoing sideways pattern. Going forward, attention should be focused on synchronicity changes between stablecoins and mainstream asset volatility.

According to Coinglass data on April 21, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has remained positive for 12 consecutive days, currently at 0.04%, indicating a continued recovery in US market buying sentiment after previously being negative for 15 days. The index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to the global average, reflecting US market capital flow, institutional investment interest, and market sentiment.

Buying sentiment in the US market continues to improve, with the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index remaining positive for 12 consecutive days.

The stablecoin market reached a record $318.6 billion in April 2026, a 34% increase from 2025, amid unprecedented global regulatory actions including the GENIUS Act in the US, Hong Kong issuing its first stablecoin licenses, and MiCA reshaping Europe. Major players like Tether and Circle show contrasting regulatory standings. The market faces growing institutional involvement, regulatory fragmentation, and evolving risks as safer stablecoins gain adoption but deepen ties with traditional finance, highlighting a pivotal year ahead for global stablecoin regulation and market structure.

Overview of the Stablecoin Market Landscape and Global Regulatory Developments

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin short-term holders' discount has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, with the STH-SOPR 7-day average rising above 1, indicating short-term sellers are no longer clearly at a loss. However, the current price remains below the $83,000 cost basis, suggesting the market has not yet entered a true risk-on phase.

Data: Analysis: Short-term Bitcoin holders' discount narrows, market warms up but risk appetite has not yet started.

Recent regulatory probes into market manipulation predictions have intensified information asymmetry risks. Since mid-April, US trading volumes have continued to trend lower overall, reflecting higher sensitivity of the variety to large trades and insider information. If there are no inflows of new active capital or favorable regulatory interventions, the weak pattern may continue in the short term amid low trading volumes.

US President Trump criticized global geopolitics as a "casino," yet repeated cases of "preemptive trades" before policy announcements have raised suspicions of market manipulation and insider information leaks. Notably, a US soldier profited from bets on Polymarket before a Venezuela operation, and massive commodity trades preceded Trump's policy shifts. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has launched investigations amid political pressure, while the rapid growth of prediction markets intensifies information asymmetry.

Trump criticizes the world as a "casino," yet repeatedly engages in "front-running trades": acting before policies are announced, raising suspicions of market manipulation.

Talus

Analyst: Interest rate decision will be the main market driver, focus on the impact of Middle East conflict.

US Treasury yields rise, market focuses on this week's central bank meetings.

Barclays: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week, but may still cut rates within the year.

Bank of England to keep rates on hold while it gauges impact of Iran war

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, setting up a communication challenge for Governor Kazuo Ueda as the foundering yen hovers near levels that have prompted past interventions.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

HTX DeepThink: After Interest Rate Cut Expectations Are Postponed to September, the Structural Differentiation of the Crypto Market Intensifies

FOMC Meeting: US Fed Expected To Hold Rates Till 2027 Despite Kevin Warsh Taking Charge

Senate Committee Sets April 29 Vote To Advance Pro-Crypto Warsh’s Fed Chair Nomination

The global oil shock has the Fed cornered just days before its next meeting — what that means for Bitcoin

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