Based on the current market structure and sentiment performance, BASED benefits from the overall resurgence of risk asset enthusiasm and continues to oscillate within the range of 0.1050~0.1380, with significant volatility risks remaining. No effective increase in volume has been observed, so in the short term, it is recommended to buy low and sell high within the range, with particular attention to coordinated volume breakouts. If Bitcoin or macro factors trigger intense volatility, it is advised to take profit or cut losses decisively. Medium- to long-term strategies should focus on observing key support and the sustainability of capital inflows, waiting for clear breakout signals before entering further positions.

Recently, as Bitcoin's price saw a slight increase, short-selling funding rates surged to high levels between 11% and 19%, while large-scale institutions and retail investors continued accumulating positions at the bottom. The seven-day average profit metric for short-term holders has returned above the cost line. Weeks of consecutive net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have driven overall market sentiment from 'fear' to 'neutral.' However, the coexistence of bullish and bearish forces suggests that future volatility may intensify, and such volatility may impact high-beta assets like BASED. Candlestick charts show that after a significant rally in mid-April, BASED entered a narrow consolidation phase, and short-term market wait-and-see sentiment has risen.

Despite recent Bitcoin price gains, investors are increasingly betting on a price decline. Data from CEX.IO shows short sellers paying rates around 11%, peaking at 19%, the highest since early 2023. Concurrently, Bitcoin is undergoing one of its largest accumulation phases. The simultaneous rise in strong buying and short positions suggests potential significant price volatility, with the possibility of a short squeeze or a reverse shock. Bitcoin currently down 1.6% at $75,754.

Analysis: Bitcoin short positions surge, market prepares for significant volatility.

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin short-term holders' discount has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, with the STH-SOPR 7-day average rising above 1, indicating short-term sellers are no longer clearly at a loss. However, the current price remains below the $83,000 cost basis, suggesting the market has not yet entered a true risk-on phase.

Data: Analysis: Short-term Bitcoin holders' discount narrows, market warms up but risk appetite has not yet started.

Bitcoin rose 2% to $7,910 and Ethereum 3% to $2,388 amid easing geopolitical tensions, boosting Asian markets with Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi hitting record highs. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw $823.7 million net inflows for the fourth consecutive week. The crypto fear and greed index improved from 29 (fear) to 47 (neutral). Analyst Dominick John attributes gains to ETF inflows, technical breakthroughs, and reduced risk aversion.

Analyst: Both the crypto market and Asian stock markets rise amid easing geopolitical tensions.

From the daily chart, BASED witnessed a massive single-day trading volume of 5.53 million USDT on April 16, with prices briefly soaring to 0.3240 before quickly pulling back to 0.1655 and entering a consolidation phase. From late April to early May, daily volumes declined from 101,000 USDT to 20,000 USDT, indicating a simultaneous cooling in enthusiasm from both buyers and sellers. The price continues to hover in the 0.10~0.14 range. Key short-term support lies at 0.1050 (April 30 low), with resistance at 0.1380 (April 28 high). Without significant volume support, the range-bound pattern may persist.

On-chain data statistics show that BASED recently entered the top ranks among 24-hour trending tokens, with both its price increase and trading volume among the leaders. The rapid rise in popularity signifies renewed market interest and active buying, which may attract more capital participation in the short term and help prices make another attempt at the upper range boundary. If community engagement and capital inflows continue, conditions may be created for prices to return above 0.14.

Taking into account macro risk sentiment and the price-volume structure of BASED itself, the short-term market shows 'neutral sentiment but undiminished volatility risk.' It is recommended to adopt a buy-low-sell-high strategy within the 0.1050~0.1380 range, closely watching whether trading volume expands in sync with any breakout above the upper boundary. If Bitcoin or macro events trigger sharp swings, it will significantly impact BASED; timely profit-taking or stop-loss actions are advised. In addition, for the medium- to long-term, enter positions only after key technical levels and fundamental hot spots are continually validated to enhance the probability of success.

Danske Bank analyst Asger Wilhelm Dalsjo highlights that with the Middle East conflict entering its ninth week, central banks will assess its current and future economic impacts. This week, the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank will hold policy meetings. While all are expected to keep interest rates unchanged, their evaluations of the conflict's economic effects will be closely watched, making monetary policy decisions the main market driver.

Analyst: Interest rate decision will be the main market driver, focus on the impact of Middle East conflict.

BASED

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The Federal Reserve's Kashkari and Harker stated that the conflict has changed the interest rate outlook, and maintaining an accommodative stance is no longer appropriate.

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Two Federal Reserve officials said they dissented over this week’s policy statement because it was no longer appropriate to signal the Fed’s next move was still likely to be an interest-rate cut.

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