WELL has the potential to adapt to the evolution of prediction markets towards perpetual contracts and professional market making, and its structural innovations are expected to empower long-term value growth. The current ecosystem has expanded into new scenarios such as real estate, further enriching token utility and enhancing liquidity. However, on-chain transactions and the capital curve have yet to display a clear upward trend, with prices mostly fluctuating near key moving averages (primarily in the 2.10–2.50 range) in the short term; it is necessary to be cautious about the risk of pullbacks caused by sentiment volatility. It is recommended to continually track protocol upgrades and mainstream scenario developments, reasonably allocate positions, utilize take-profit and stop-loss strategies to address unexpected risks, and strengthen independent analysis of core data sources, thereby capturing the medium- to long-term value mainline.

Currently, prediction markets are facing bottlenecks of insufficient liquidity and low capital efficiency in binary options models. The industry is advocating for a shift towards perpetual contract models to achieve unified and efficient markets. This trend will provide infrastructure tokens with upgrade opportunities during protocol transformation. If WELL participates in such structural innovations, it is expected to gain long-term added value amidst market reshaping. Meanwhile, within the sector, only a few platforms can survive long-term by leveraging professional market-making strategies. Next-generation projects need to keep optimizing risk management and capital allocation to consolidate the intrinsic value of their tokens.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Recently, real estate prediction markets settled by real house price indices have officially launched, introducing new real-world use cases for on-chain derivatives. This model enables users to hedge or speculate on housing price fluctuations without holding physical assets, significantly increasing liquidity and price discovery efficiency. If the WELL ecosystem can integrate similar transparent indices or link with mainstream on-chain assets, it will further broaden the token’s utility boundaries and promote increased community engagement and trading depth.

Polymarket has launched a new real estate prediction market in partnership with Parcl, using Parcl's daily housing price indices as transparent settlement data. This allows users to trade predictions on monthly, quarterly, or annual home price movements in major U.S. cities via USDC on Polygon. The market provides a novel way to hedge or speculate on real estate price risks without selling physical assets, introducing liquidity and real-time pricing to a traditionally illiquid market.

How to trade real estate in prediction markets

On the daily chart, WELL’s price continues to consolidate within a range, with no effective breakout of key support or resistance levels. Market analysts generally expect a short-term rebound at the beginning of Q1 driven by liquidity recovery, forming a technical V-shaped retracement. However, judging from trading volume and on-chain fee indicators, it is still difficult to support a sustained uptrend, and price may repeatedly oscillate near major moving averages in the short term. Currently, it is necessary to be alert to the risk of rapid decline triggered by sentiment turning points and to strictly apply take-profit and stop-loss measures.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Given the diversification and speed of information dissemination, the industry emphasizes the importance of accessing accurate, first-hand data. Prediction markets especially rely on discrete events, and a small volume of trades can cause prices to sharply deviate from fundamentals. Liquidity in niche contracts is highly concentrated; blindly following the crowd or poorly timed entries may easily result in heavy passive liquidations or liquidity dry-ups. Maintaining discernment and multidimensional verification of mainstream information sources will be critical for improving trading efficiency and stabilizing token price discovery.

Former Chain News editor Liu Feng and WuBlockchain founder Colin Wu discuss the challenges faced by traditional and crypto media, emphasizing the difficulty of obtaining accurate and timely information in the chaotic crypto space. They explore media influence on market prices, the tension between speed and accuracy, the role of subjective insights, and the evolving trust dynamics amid social media monetization. They also share practical advice on verifying information and recommend reliable crypto information sources.

Talking with former Chain News editor Liu Feng about the current state of crypto media, how to find real and effective information? (Includes sources of crypto information).

Moonwell

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Trump: US-Iran talks progress as Iran suspends nuclear program

Trump warns of bombing if no Iran deal by April 21 ceasefire expiration

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

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