X1000 is currently oscillating at a low level. Short-term sentiment has slightly warmed, but lacks volume support. It is recommended to focus on the validity of holding steady within the 420–435 range. Market makers continue to face liquidity pressure, and ordinary participants find it hard to bear the costs of high-frequency hedging. The market may experience a polarized pattern characterized by deep liquidity concentration in long-term quoting but depletion of short-term liquidity. Strategically, avoid chasing upward or downward moves in the short term. Focus on deploying mid- to long-term contracts, look for opportunities to increase positions driven by events, and balance risk management with capital efficiency.

Recently, the X1000 daily chart has shown a low-level oscillating pattern, with upper and lower shadows clustered around key support zones, reflecting that prices are consolidating within a balanced range in the short term. Meanwhile, market sentiment indicators have shown a slight rebound, with initial signs of inflow from some funds, which may provide tentative upward momentum in the short term. However, as overall trading volume has yet to increase significantly, bullish activity is still constrained by a wait-and-see attitude. If forthcoming news fails to continue to boost sentiment, bulls may lack follow-through, making prices prone to return to a narrow oscillation.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Prediction markets mainly operate under an order book model, where price jumps and discrete events are closely related, requiring market makers to frequently adjust positions to hedge inventory risk. If X1000’s market-making environment follows this model, market makers will face higher hedging costs and greater inventory losses during periods of high volatility. Although platforms may offer liquidity subsidies, they only partially alleviate this pressure. In the long term, only teams with refined risk management and professional strategies can maintain stable quoting, while ordinary market makers may be forced to withdraw due to wider spreads and reduced depth.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Historical data shows that in the short-term (<1 day) contract market, most contracts often see zero trading, and overall liquidity is relatively scarce. In contrast, long-term (>30 days) contracts exhibit significantly greater liquidity due to event-driven and hedging needs. Should X1000 follow this pattern, short-term participants should be wary of matching difficulties and widening price spreads caused by capital concentrating in a handful of leading contracts, while long-term holders can rely on macro event triggers and hedging demand to enjoy better market depth and mid-to-long-term expected returns.

X1000

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