Benefiting from improving global crypto market liquidity and a bullish Asian-led atmosphere, COINS is expected to test previous highs in the short term, but caution is needed regarding selling pressure due to declining risk appetite during the US session. It is important to closely monitor the current key support levels; if breached, short-term pullback risks will become significant. Meanwhile, sector rotation is accelerating, and projects with real use cases and ecosystem partnerships will see more capital allocation. Investors are advised to balance their positions with a moderately bullish stance based on COINS ecosystem development, taking the Bitcoin zone above $93,000 as a market indicator, and guard against downward shocks during the US trading hours.

Recently, the global crypto market capitalization climbed from $3.06 trillion to $3.22 trillion, an increase of over 5%, indicating an overall improvement in liquidity conditions. At the same time, market analysts point out that although more data confirmation is needed, signs of a market turning point have begun to emerge. For COINS, this atmosphere is expected to boost buying sentiment in the short term, pushing the price to test prior highs.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $3.22 trillion this week, up approximately 5.23% from last week's $3.06 trillion.

CoinW Research Institute Weekly Report (2025.12.29 - 2026.1.4)

The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has remained negative for 20 consecutive days, reflecting increasing selling pressure in the US market and more cautious risk appetite among institutions. As a key global liquidity indicator, this sentiment may transmit to other digital assets. If COINS fails to gain enough buying support during the US session, the risk of a short-term pullback could increase, making it essential to watch whether key support levels hold.

Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 20 consecutive days, currently at -0.0413%, indicating that Bitcoin prices on Coinbase are below the global average. This index reflects US market capital flows, institutional investment enthusiasm, and market sentiment. A negative premium suggests increased selling pressure, reduced investor risk appetite, heightened market caution, or capital outflows in the US market.

Data: Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium for 20 consecutive days, currently at -0.0413%.

The Asian market has performed strongly recently, with Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking past the $92,000 and $3,100 marks, respectively. In the options market, long calls and straddle strategies are active, suggesting increased short covering and betting on rising volatility. For COINS, if the derivatives market shows similar positioning, a structural rally could be triggered, especially as market style shifts from speculative assets to functional tokens with use cases.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

As Bitcoin stabilizes above $93,000, capital is flowing from Meme coins to tokens with real-world use cases, such as those in AI, DeFi, and Metaverse sectors, which are outperforming. In this round of sector rotation, COINS will be more likely to attract funds if it has specific applications or ecosystem partners; otherwise, it risks being marginalized. Investors should assess COINS' project progress to determine its relative position in this trend.

On January 6, with Bitcoin holding above $93,000, the crypto market saw funds shift from Meme coins to tokens with practical applications, notably AI-themed tokens. Functional indices like DeFi and metaverse rose over 4%, while Meme coin indices remained flat or declined. Render Network surged about 20%, and other AI tokens gained over 6%. This trend aligns with optimism in AI and tech stocks, though geopolitical risks and US employment data may impact sentiment. Continued Bitcoin ETF inflows are crucial for further gains.

Analysis: The crypto market's rebound momentum strengthens, with AI concept tokens outperforming Meme coins.

Coin

British Pound: Growth slowdown and BoE tightening – BNP Paribas

Norwegian Krone: Norges Bank's surprise hike and risk support – HSBC

Eurozone: Higher inflation and ECB hikes projected – BNP Paribas

Brazilian economists raised their interest rate forecast for next year as inflation comes under pressure from resilient domestic demand and an energy shock caused by the Iran war.

Japanese Yen: Intervention and BoJ policy in focus – HSBC

Fed: Extended pause before late 2026 cut – UOB

2024–2026: Asset repricing amid persistently high interest rates

Mitsubishi UFJ: Stalemate in US-Iran negotiations intensifies inflation concerns, causing gold prices to drop.

Koehler: Unless the situation significantly improves, interest rate hikes are inevitable.

The European Central Bank will raise interest rates twice this year as the Iran war drives inflation higher, a Bloomberg survey shows.

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