Recently, ONE benefited from improved risk appetite and the spillover effect from external technology sectors, with the price briefly breaking above 0.00260 USDT and trading volume surging simultaneously, indicating short-term bullish entries. However, weak ETF capital flows and rising macro interest rate hike expectations caused the price to pull back from its high, breaking the critical support at 0.00243 USDT. The short-term support strength in the 0.00230–0.00232 USDT range requires close attention. In the mid-to-long term, declining ecological development activity weakens its fundamentals, raising concerns about sustained capital and user attraction. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent on-chain ecological progress and key technical levels. Avoid blind accumulation before a significant and stable move above 0.00230 USDT.

Recently, as geopolitical risks eased and sector rotations in AI and semiconductors boosted risk appetite, the broader market and Bitcoin showed marked uptrends, driving ONE’s price higher for multiple consecutive days. From May 6th’s 0.002383 USDT to May 10th’s 0.002606 USDT, the price rose over 8%, accompanied by significant expansion in trading volume from May 8th to 10th, indicating active entry of bullish capital. This formed a short-term technical high and a concentrated volume area at the top, with positive short-term sentiment.

Global markets surged as geopolitical tensions eased, with major indices hitting record highs and the Korean KOSPI soaring 6.45%. In tech, semiconductor and AI-related stocks rallied strongly. Bitcoin broke $80,000, driven by institutional ETF inflows, though on-chain activity showed low retail participation. Opinions diverge on Bitcoin's outlook, with some seeing a fragile rally and others bullish due to strong accumulation and ETF demand. TON ecosystem also gained momentum after Telegram's increased involvement.

Trading Moment: Global Asset Frenzy, Bitcoin Breaks $80,000, $84,000 CME Gap Awaiting Refill.

After a sustained rally, as spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows ended and U.S. macro data exceeded expectations, market concerns about prolonged rate hikes and inflation resurgence reignited, putting risk assets under pressure. ONE began pulling back from 0.002552 USDT on May 12th, hitting a low of 0.002302 USDT on May 13th, breaking below the 0.00243 USDT support level. The decline was accompanied by increased volume, indicating short-term bullish momentum encountered resistance. The effectiveness of support in the 0.00230–0.00232 USDT area needs to be watched.

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 after five consecutive days of net inflows into spot ETFs ended, signaling a cooling rebound from February lows. Stronger-than-expected US April jobs data heightened concerns over energy-driven inflation limiting rate cuts. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows, reflecting reduced institutional risk appetite. Rising US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices up, offsetting some risk asset support. Derivatives suggest prolonged hawkish rate expectations, with retail participation low and market momentum weak, posing a risk of Bitcoin retesting $75,000–$78,000 support.

Analysis: Bitcoin surged then fell back below $80K, with ETF outflows and geopolitical risks jointly suppressing market sentiment.

Latest on-chain developer activity data show that major Layer-1 networks have seen a sharp drop in the number of contributors. Although Harmony still maintains a certain activity ranking in overall events, the number of contributors has dropped significantly year-over-year, reflecting ongoing pressure on community engagement and the development ecosystem. This long-term negative factor may dampen the project's sustained appeal, so attention should be paid to substantive progress in code commits and ecosystem projects in the next quarter.

Ethereum leads blockchain developer activity with 9.5K events despite a 9.86% drop and a 93.54% decline in contributors. BNB Chain ranks second with 4.4K events and a 2.64% increase, though contributors fell 93.31%. Polygon, Solana, Cosmos, Arbitrum, Avalanche, Optimism, Harmony, and Gnosis also show mixed results, with most experiencing significant drops in contributors despite some growth in activity events.

Top 10 Blockchains by Developer Activity This Week

Beyond on-chain dynamics, the high prosperity in global storage and chip industries is providing additional support for risk assets. AI application expansion and anticipated semiconductor sector upcycles have sharply driven up related stocks, boosting market risk appetite and offering incremental funds and optimism for ONE’s mid-term rebound. From a technical and news perspective, if the price holds above 0.00230 USDT, there is still hope for a second rally should the broader market recover.

Crypto One

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