BILL is currently in a phase of marginal liquidity improvement and bottom consolidation. Short-term transaction volume and fee structure reflect the market's rebound potential. Investors are advised to pay attention to the key support range (reference range: previous low ±5%) for staged, tentative entry, and must set dynamic stop-losses to guard against the risk of rebound failure. In the medium to long term, due to the macro downcycle and incomplete fundamental recovery, position flexibility should be maintained; accumulate steadily on dips. If capital inflows, trading volume, and fee indicators do not show significant improvement, it is inadvisable to increase holdings substantially. Overall, short-term strategies should utilize the liquidity rebound window, while mid-term approaches should remain defensive and wait for confirmation of a trend reversal.

Recently, liquidity has improved marginally and bottoming signals have become more evident. Changes in transaction volume and fee structure indicate that the market is accumulating momentum, suggesting a possible short-term rebound from lower levels. At this stage, closely monitor whether trading volume can accompany price recovery, as this will confirm true improvement in sentiment.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Although there are short-term rebound opportunities, from a macro cycle perspective, the market is still in a structural downtrend, with long-term transaction volume and fee levels not yet returning to healthy levels. Value-oriented investors prefer to build positions gradually based on clear trends and fundamental business support, rather than chasing short-term sentiment swings. Until there is substantial improvement in the macro environment, position flexibility should be maintained.

Based on the recovery in liquidity and changes in trading volumes, short-term staged, tentative buying can be conducted in key support areas, with strict stop-loss settings to guard against fragile rebounds. If subsequent trading volume continues to expand and important resistance levels are broken, moderate position increases are warranted. For the medium and long term, it is recommended to build positions in batches based on macro and industry fundamentals, dynamically adjusting holdings using capital flows and fee indicators to balance risk and return.

Bill the Bear

Hassett says Powell’s reappointment could delay Fed rate cuts, with crypto watching closely

U.S. PCE Inflation Rises to 3-Year High, Bitcoin Slides

US Treasury yields spike to highest levels in a year, adding a new problem for Bitcoin liquidity.

European Central Bank policymakers are likely to raise interest rates at their next meeting in June unless there are positive developments on energy prices and ending the Iran war.

The European Central Bank's inclination to raise interest rates has strengthened, with Lagarde emphasizing increased risks.

European Central Bank officials stated that if energy prices do not ease, interest rates will be raised in June.

Hassett: It's time for Powell to leave the Federal Reserve.

Here’s why the crypto market is falling today

Lagarde speech: Interest rates best tool we can use

The Fed’s PCE Data Used to Measure Inflation Has Been Released! Here’s Bitcoin’s (BTC) Initial Reaction!

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