Driven by liquidity recovery and institutional entry, BRETT maintains a medium- to long-term upward logic. However, in the short term, it is still affected by macro uncertainties and geopolitical shocks, with the current main oscillation range at $0.0067—0.0074. It is recommended to monitor changes in market trading volumes: if a breakout above $0.0074 occurs with increased volume, a move toward $0.0078—0.0080 is possible; if $0.0067 breaks down, beware of rapid capital outflows and the risk of a deep correction. Overall, position management should remain flexible to adapt to volatility, and enhanced by option hedging for stronger defense.

Recently, the restorative growth of stablecoin market cap and ongoing net inflows into spot ETFs have jointly improved the overall market liquidity environment. Against a backdrop of easing capital conditions, risk assets have become more attractive, drawing greater trading attention to small-and mid-cap coins. Since mid-April, BRETT's price has steadily risen from around $0.0066, with average daily trading volume expanding, reflecting the bulls' active response to liquidity replenishment. Institutional entry has also strengthened medium- and long-term holding confidence, laying a foundation for sustained trends.

Since October last year, Bitcoin has been in a prolonged adjustment phase due to weak liquidity and limited new capital inflows, with Tether's market cap hovering around $183 billion. Recently, Tether's circulation increased by about $3 billion, signaling a recovery in stablecoin market cap and improved market liquidity. Although still in early stages, these positive liquidity signals may precede price gains and could support Bitcoin prices if sustained in the coming weeks.

BIT: Signs of market liquidity recovery are emerging, but it is still in the early stages.

Despite renewed US-Iran tensions affecting oil, stocks, and crypto markets, Bitcoin stabilized around $75,200 on Monday. Analysts note that the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $996.4 million last week, its strongest since mid-January, supporting the market through institutional demand. However, the market remains in a "fragile balance," with stablecoin balances rising, indicating liquidity is circulating internally rather than exiting the crypto market.

Analyst: Bitcoin maintains a fragile balance around $75,200, ETF inflows hedge against geopolitical risk shocks.

Crude oil prices have risen again this round due to heightened tensions in the Middle East and concerns about shipping route supplies, while Japan's corporate service price index has exceeded expectations, escalating global inflationary pressures and policy uncertainties. Together with a rise in risk aversion, short-term funds may shift to traditional safe-haven assets, causing the crypto market, including BRETT, to see profit-taking. On April 24–25, BRETT tested the $0.0067 level multiple times intraday but remained under pressure before mainstream sentiment warmed.

On April 24, the crypto market weakened with BTC hovering around $77,800, slowing its rise from $65,000. ETH fell about 0.8%, underperforming BTC. Market pressure stemmed from Japan's March corporate service price index rising 3.1%, exceeding expectations and signaling possible BOJ rate hikes, strengthening the yen and risking global asset sell-offs. Additionally, ongoing Iran conflict disrupted oil transport, pushing WTI crude over $96/barrel, raising inflation concerns and limiting Fed rate cut prospects.

Analysis: BTC's upward momentum is hindered as Japanese inflation data and the Iran conflict trigger market risk aversion.

The demand for downside protection in options has declined, resulting in overall volatility staying at a neutral to low level, causing BRETT's intraday volatility to converge. Technically, the $0.0067—$0.0074 zone has become the main short-term oscillation range, with several failed tests of the $0.0074 upper band forming resistance. If trading volumes expand further and bull funds return, a challenge of the $0.0078—$0.0080 resistance would be likely; otherwise, beware of rapid pullbacks if $0.0067 support is broken.

Glassnode's latest report highlights intensified market tug-of-war with spot CVD turning negative, indicating increased selling pressure and emerging bearish sentiment. Futures show rising risk appetite but declining long funding rates, reflecting growing bearishness. Options suggest reduced downside protection demand and neutralizing volatility. Meanwhile, US spot ETFs see rising MVRV and inflows, boosting investor interest and supporting cautious optimism amid stable long-term holder confidence.

Glassnode: Market bullish and bearish struggles intensify, spot CVD turns negative indicating increased selling pressure, but ETF inflows provide support.

The 7-day SOPR for short-term on-chain holders has returned to breakeven, indicating a weakening of short-term profit-taking pressure. Meanwhile, lending rates in the market have hit record highs, coexisting with evidence of persistent accumulation in small-cap coins, which indicates intensifying long-short divergence. When supply and demand continually clash in a low-volatility zone, a breakout of key resistance or support could trigger a short-term squeeze event, bringing significant volatility opportunities.

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin short-term holders' discount has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, with the STH-SOPR 7-day average rising above 1, indicating short-term sellers are no longer clearly at a loss. However, the current price remains below the $83,000 cost basis, suggesting the market has not yet entered a true risk-on phase.

Data: Analysis: Short-term Bitcoin holders' discount narrows, market warms up but risk appetite has not yet started.

Bitcoin rose 2% to $7,910 and Ethereum 3% to $2,388 amid easing geopolitical tensions, boosting Asian markets with Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi hitting record highs. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw $823.7 million net inflows for the fourth consecutive week. The crypto fear and greed index improved from 29 (fear) to 47 (neutral). Analyst Dominick John attributes gains to ETF inflows, technical breakthroughs, and reduced risk aversion.

Analyst: Both the crypto market and Asian stock markets rise amid easing geopolitical tensions.

Brett ETH

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected, with internal divisions reaching the highest level since 1992.

Wall Street Breakfast | April 30, 2026.

Gold held losses after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady and said the war in Iran was clouding the economic outlook.

Brazil’s central bank cut its key interest rate by a quarter point for a second straight meeting, even as inflation accelerates and signs of economic resilience emerge.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Prices Drop As Fed Holds Rates and Trump Rejects Iran Deal

Bitcoin Dips Under $76K as Fed Holds Rates in Rare 8-4 Split

Bitcoin Swings $2,800 as Traders Dump at $77,882 Peak, Pushing Price Toward $75,100

Bitcoin, Ethereum Dip as Fed Holds Rates Steady for Third Straight Time

Bitcoin slips to $75k as Fed holds rates, crypto stocks tumble

Market pricing shows the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike has risen to 11%.

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