FLIP has recently been fluctuating within the $0.198–$0.214 range, with a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. On-chain funds have weakened and futures confidence has declined, but continuous inflows into spot ETFs and accumulated buy orders on trading platforms are providing support for a short-term rebound. The technical signals of a short-term breakout are apparent; if the key support at $0.205 can be held, bulls are likely to sustain their momentum. However, caution is needed for the risk of a pullback induced by tightening macro liquidity and renewed risk aversion. Medium- and long-term investors are advised to dynamically track core capital flows and BTC structural changes, flexibly adjust position sizes, to control volatility risk and seize periodic opportunities.

Recently, on-chain data and derivatives markets have shown clear divergence: spot net transaction volume indicators have shifted from positive to negative, indicating increased short-term selling pressure; the funding rates for bullish futures positions continue to decline, reflecting a weakening confidence among speculators. However, continuous inflows into spot ETFs represented by Bitcoin, coupled with stable cost prices among long-term holders, underpin a cautious optimism in the market. Meanwhile, exchange data shows rising short costs alongside large-scale cumulative buy orders, suggesting the potential for notable price volatility in the short term. Overall, market sentiment harbors both the risk of a pullback and opportunities for periodic rebounds.

Glassnode's latest report highlights intensified market tug-of-war with spot CVD turning negative, indicating increased selling pressure and emerging bearish sentiment. Futures show rising risk appetite but declining long funding rates, reflecting growing bearishness. Options suggest reduced downside protection demand and neutralizing volatility. Meanwhile, US spot ETFs see rising MVRV and inflows, boosting investor interest and supporting cautious optimism amid stable long-term holder confidence.

Glassnode: Market bullish and bearish struggles intensify, spot CVD turns negative indicating increased selling pressure, but ETF inflows provide support.

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin short-term holders' discount has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, with the STH-SOPR 7-day average rising above 1, indicating short-term sellers are no longer clearly at a loss. However, the current price remains below the $83,000 cost basis, suggesting the market has not yet entered a true risk-on phase.

Data: Analysis: Short-term Bitcoin holders' discount narrows, market warms up but risk appetite has not yet started.

On the daily chart, FLIP has been oscillating repeatedly within the $0.198–$0.202 range for nearly three weeks, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate. On April 27 and 28, trading volume spiked markedly, breaking through 230,000 and 360,000 trades, respectively, with the price reaching $0.2142, surpassing the previous critical resistance at $0.2055. This upward movement, accompanied by rising volume and price, forms a typical breakout signal; if the pullback holds at the $0.205 support area, short-term bulls are expected to retain dominance.

Geopolitical and macro supply conflicts remain, with risks of oil shortages persisting. Coupled with frequent DeFi security incidents and decision-making noise amid information overload, market sentiment continues to be affected. If Bitcoin can effectively break through key resistance and trigger a short squeeze, it may lead to sector rotation and further boost FLIP’s current bullish momentum. However, if macro liquidity tightens or risk appetite diminishes again, FLIP could retrace to around $0.198. Medium- and long-term holders are advised, under position control, to track large-scale capital flows and BTC structural changes to dynamically adjust strategies.

The Weekly Editor's Picks (0418-0424) highlights key insights from fast-moving news, covering macroeconomic trends like the looming physical oil supply shortage despite the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, investment and crypto market analyses including user geography and token strategies, and policy updates such as the uncertain passage of the CLARITY Act. It also addresses DeFi challenges, security incidents, and notable industry developments, offering a curated filter to retain valuable perspectives amid information overload.

Weekly Editor's Picks (0418-0424)

This week, the crypto market remains volatile with intensified disagreements between bulls and bears, making directional choices urgent. HYPE's ability to break $43.17 and challenge $45.76 is key to continuing its daily wave V structure. BTC faces a critical test at $79,500–$80,600; a breakthrough could signal a trend change, while resistance may lead to a pullback. Clear structural analysis and disciplined execution are essential amid risks and opportunities.

Two key battles are underway simultaneously, and the choice of direction for BTC and HYPE is imminent.

FLIP

Brad Conger: Internal Fed Disputes Set Tone for Future Policy, Hawks May Prevail

Powell: No reason to believe policy will tighten significantly

Powell: Unable to Clearly Determine the Neutral Interest Rate

Powell will signal and take action if a rate hike is needed.

Powell: The prospect of rising core inflation is real.

Powell: The current interest rate is at the high end of the neutral range, slightly tight.

Powell: Changing the easing bias is a form of forward guidance.

Powell: The number of people who see the possibility of both rate hikes and rate cuts as equally likely has increased.

Tony Welch: The Federal Reserve's threshold for raising interest rates remains high, and the economy does not yet show a need for rate cuts.

Brian Jacobsen: Opposition to the Fed will be louder after Waller takes office

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