The marginal improvement in the macro environment has shifted MM market sentiment from cautious to neutral-to-bullish; however, within the core range (referencing Bitcoin at $42,000–44,500), trading remains choppy with an unclear trend. In the short term, liquidity in the derivatives market is insufficient, with concentrated trades and weak depth, increasing the impact cost of large transactions. It is recommended to maintain light positions, strictly control stop-losses, monitor changes in order book depth, split orders for execution, and guard against liquidity risk.

Recently, the overall crypto market has shown preliminary signs of improvement, but a clear trend continuation has yet to emerge. From current candlestick charts, prices are oscillating around the central range, with no significant breakout or heavy-volume pullback observed. Market sentiment is shifting from extremely cautious to wait-and-see or even mildly optimistic, providing MMs with tentative opportunities for short-term upward moves. However, as trends remain unsteady, it is necessary to maintain risk controls and manage position sizes and stop-losses.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Trading volume for short-term contracts in the crypto derivatives market is notably lower than in other sub-markets, with the overall 24-hour average reaching only tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands. Liquidity is highly concentrated while depth is lacking. For MMs, large transactions may cause significant slippage, with rising execution costs for short-term arbitrage and high-frequency strategies—further amplifying volatility risks. When planning trades, it is advised to pay close attention to order book depth and bid-ask spreads, and to split large orders to reduce impact costs.

Milk Money

Gold held losses after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady and said the war in Iran was clouding the economic outlook.

Brazil’s central bank cut its key interest rate by a quarter point for a second straight meeting, even as inflation accelerates and signs of economic resilience emerge.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Prices Drop As Fed Holds Rates and Trump Rejects Iran Deal

Bitcoin Dips Under $76K as Fed Holds Rates in Rare 8-4 Split

Bitcoin Swings $2,800 as Traders Dump at $77,882 Peak, Pushing Price Toward $75,100

Bitcoin, Ethereum Dip as Fed Holds Rates Steady for Third Straight Time

Bitcoin slips to $75k as Fed holds rates, crypto stocks tumble

Market pricing shows the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike has risen to 11%.

Summary of key points from Powell's last press conference as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Powell: Policy likely to remain in neutral range

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