Currently, NVDAX is receiving short-term support as macro risk appetite recovers, but there is significant divergence in derivative market flows, indicating limited willingness for high-leverage positioning. In the short term, market sentiment is driving increased volatility. Technically, the $202–204 range is a key resistance; without a decisive breakthrough, the likelihood of consolidation at higher levels increases. Key support levels are at $198 and $195. A breakdown may see prices test $190. Suggested strategy: control position size in the short term, pay attention to trading volume and capital flows. Increase positions if $202–204 is broken on strong volume; otherwise, reduce holdings on rallies and set strict stop-losses.

Easing tensions in the Middle East and notable progress in major power negotiations have significantly reduced geopolitical premiums, spurring a rebound in global risk assets. The technology and artificial intelligence sectors have seen active capital inflows, benefiting the digital currency market as well. Bitcoin has climbed back above $74,000, and, with elevated risk appetite, NVDAX has also found strong support. The price has steadily risen from the $170 region at the end of March to above $200, reflecting investor enthusiasm for small- and mid-cap tokens during the risk repricing phase.

The Middle East ceasefire and US-Iran nuclear talks progress have eased geopolitical risks, pressuring oil prices and boosting global risk assets. The Nasdaq set a record 12-day winning streak, with tech and AI sectors attracting capital. Bitcoin rebounded above $74,000 amid steady ETF flows and balanced leverage liquidations. However, Democratic opposition delays Fed nominee Wash's hearing, increasing leadership uncertainty and market volatility risks.

Bitget UEX Daily Report | Hopes for Middle East Peace Rise, Nasdaq Hits Record 12 Consecutive Gains, Anthropic Releases New AI Model

Recently, the basis between long and short in perpetual contracts has remained volatile, dropping to negative funding rates before recovering somewhat—signaling that enthusiasm for high-leverage longs has yet to fully rebound. The divergence between spot trading volume and open interest in derivatives is widening, resulting in short-term capital flows being more sentiment driven. In this environment, NVDAX shows some upside intent, but often faces tug-of-war trading during periods of tight funding, amplifying volume fluctuations and increasing the risk of minor pullbacks.

On April 17, Coinglass data showed that as Bitcoin maintained a volatile trend, the funding rates on major CEX and DEX platforms indicated a deepening bearish sentiment in the market. Funding rates, used to balance perpetual contract prices with underlying asset prices, reflect trader sentiment: rates above 0.01% signal bullishness, while rates below 0.005% indicate bearishness. Current rates suggest increased market pessimism.

The current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate a deepening bearish sentiment in the market.

According to Coinglass data on April 16, as Bitcoin continues to rise, the funding rates on major centralized and decentralized exchanges indicate a significant weakening of the bearish market sentiment. Funding rates, used to balance perpetual contract prices with underlying asset prices, show that when rates exceed 0.01%, the market is generally bullish, while rates below 0.005% indicate bearish sentiment.

The current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate a significant weakening of the bearish market sentiment.

Glassnode's latest report highlights intensified market tug-of-war with spot CVD turning negative, indicating increased selling pressure and emerging bearish sentiment. Futures show rising risk appetite but declining long funding rates, reflecting growing bearishness. Options suggest reduced downside protection demand and neutralizing volatility. Meanwhile, US spot ETFs see rising MVRV and inflows, boosting investor interest and supporting cautious optimism amid stable long-term holder confidence.

Glassnode: Market bullish and bearish struggles intensify, spot CVD turns negative indicating increased selling pressure, but ETF inflows provide support.

On the daily chart, NVDAX retreated after touching a high of $202.22 in mid-April, showing signs of pullback on lighter volume. The main resistance clusters in the $202–204 area, and multiple failed attempts to break through have made this a crucial near-term barrier. Support lies at $198 and $195; losing these levels could open the way to testing the $190 level. The moving average system remains bullish overall, but the 5-day and 10-day lines are close together, signaling intensified short-term volatility. Watch for volume and closing price action as confirmation of MA strength.

Bitcoin recently surpassed $75,000 for the first time in 73 days, facing resistance near $78,000 with $74,000 seen as a critical support level for further gains. Market views diverge: bears cite weak macro liquidity and reliance on short-covering, while bulls highlight strong whale accumulation and potential breakthroughs above key moving averages. The broader market shows mixed signals amid geopolitical developments and fluctuating investor sentiment.

Trading moment: BTC encountered resistance at 78K, and it needs to hold 74K to aim for a breakthrough.

NVIDIA xStock

FED Interest Rate Decision Is Coming Up – Will Rates Drop or Stay the Same? Here Are the Latest Projections

BoE: MPC Maintains a Cautious Stance – Rabobank

Euro-zone inflation probably jumped in April to the highest in 2 1/2 years as fallout from the Iran war squeezed economies across the currency area

USD/JPY: Supported but capped below 160 – DBS

The U.S. Attorney for Washington, D.C.: Will stop the investigation into Powell's Federal Reserve building costs.

The final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the US for April is 4.7%.

Bank of Canada to hold interest rates this year, show patience with energy inflation: Reuters poll

ECB: Rate hike call pushed to June – Rabobank

Economists raised their estimates for US inflation and said they expect only one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year amid elevated energy costs sparked by the Iran war.

The central bank and eight other departments: Prohibit providing online marketing services for virtual currency issuance and trading.

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