The current OI (Open Interest) has rebounded significantly in the short term, driven by improved liquidity and bottom-fishing capital inflows. It is recommended to focus on T+0 trend-following trading opportunities arising from this bottom rebound, and consider increasing short-term long positions. However, macro trading volumes and fee recovery remain limited, and there is no turning point in the macro cycle. Medium- and long-term capital allocation remains cautious, and there is still a risk of a secondary decline in OI. The strategy should mainly target range-bound fluctuations. Key levels should be watched for increased allocation upon OI upside breakthroughs; if there is no breakthrough and macro sentiment does not improve, a conservative wait-and-see approach is advisable. In the medium to long term, if a clear bullish trend and sustained structural capital inflows emerge, it is recommended to follow the trend and increase positions to participate in long-side reconstruction, raising the proportion of long holdings. Overall, positions should be dynamically adjusted based on risk control principles, taking into account both short-term opportunities and medium- to long-term trends.

Recently, the recovery of market liquidity has triggered an uptick in short-term bottom-fishing sentiment. In an environment of improving liquidity, some capital has started to open tentative positions near the bottom, causing open interest to rise under the contest between bulls and bears. Although overall trading volume and fee levels have not yet recovered substantially, a window for a bottom rebound has opened, and OI is expected to see a marked upward movement in the short term.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

From a macro perspective, neither trading volumes nor fees have seen a substantive recovery, and medium- to long-term capital remains cautious overall. Market sentiment is generally pessimistic, and structural capital allocations are conservative, making it difficult for open interest to continuously reach new highs. If the macro environment does not improve significantly in the future, there is potential for further downside in OI.

Based on the trend investing concept, institutions start to gradually increase positions once an upward major trend is confirmed, while speculative shorting forces gradually exit after oscillation. As the identification of a bullish trend becomes increasingly clear, bearish positions are persistently squeezed out by the market, shifting the OI structure toward a healthy, long-sided allocation. It is expected that the proportion of long holdings will further increase in the medium to long term.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

O Intelligence Coin

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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