XBTC is currently in a sensitive zone between bullish and bearish forces: the cost basis of short-term holders forms certain support below, but if the price approaches the 100,000 threshold, it will face stage-wise selling pressure. Large bets on volatility in the derivatives market indicate that a directional breakout is brewing, with attention on the 80,000–120,000 volatility range. Leverage funds are highly concentrated; a breakout above 95,000 could trigger an accelerated rally, while a drop below 86,000–87,000 would significantly increase long liquidation risk. Investment advice: Maintain a cautious, moderately bullish position, monitor the dynamic support/resistance at 95,000 and 89,200 in the short term, and consider long-term allocation opportunities while keeping track of evolving liquidity and macro policy trends.

Currently, XBTC's price remains below the average cost basis of short-term holders, resulting in these investors being in a floating loss position and suppressing their willingness to sell. This provides market resilience during pullbacks and limits magnified selling pressure. However, caution is advised: should the price rise near the critical 100,000 level, short-term holders may reach breakeven and start selling to realize gains, potentially creating staged price pressure.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel noted that the current BTC price rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This loss limits their selling potential, easing downward pressure. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal would be BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

The derivatives market has seen significant bets on XBTC volatility. A straddle position valued at approximately $2.36 million involved buying both puts and calls at 80,000 and 120,000 strike prices, indicating traders are betting the price will either surge or plunge significantly by the end of March. If the price remains range-bound, the premiums paid will result in losses, which would dampen short-term sentiment; however, if volatility materializes as expected, it could amplify a one-sided market trend.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

A trader has purchased a long straddle BTC options combo on Deribit, buying 660 BTC call options at $120,000 and 660 BTC put options at $80,000, both expiring March 27. This volatility strategy bets on a large BTC price swing by the end of March, profiting from significant moves either up or down. If BTC remains between $80,000 and $120,000 with little movement, the trader risks losing the entire $2.36 million premium paid.

A trader is betting on a wild surge in volatility by the end of March and has purchased a long straddle BTC options position.

Liquidation thresholds near key price levels for both bulls and bears are clear: if the price breaks above 95,000, billions in short positions could be liquidated, fueling a rebound; if it falls below the 86,000–87,000 zone, over a billion in long positions could be liquidated, intensifying selling pressure. Recently, XBTC has repeatedly tested and successfully bounced from the critical 89,200 support, while funding rates have consistently remained positive — indicating that longs are heavily using leverage. If selling pressure escalates again, it may trigger chain liquidations, posing short-term risks to the price.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $94,311, the total short position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.798 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $86,127, the total long position liquidation on major CEX will amount to $1.834 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $94,311, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.798 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $95,649, the total short position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.532 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $87,099, the total long position liquidations on major CEXs will amount to $1.87 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $95,649, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.532 billion.

Bitcoin rebounded to around $90,500 after testing a key support near $89,200, marking its third consecutive day of pullback following a peak near $95,000. The decline is attributed to low trading volume and profit-taking. Market leverage is rising, with perpetual contract funding rates positive, indicating traders are using leverage to buy the dip. However, this concentrated long positioning increases the risk of forced liquidations and additional selling pressure if prices fall further.

Analysis: The key support level for Bitcoin is around $89,200, with traders still using leverage to buy the dip.

According to the latest outlook from exchanges, the traditional 'four-year cycle' is being challenged by changes in macro liquidity structure: expected Fed easing in the second half of the year, increasing institutional participation, asset tokenization, and stablecoin expansion are all forming a new value support framework. In the medium to long term, these trends are expected to provide XBTC with a more robust capital base and valuation support, but timing should be dynamically judged in light of evolving macro and liquidity conditions.

Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook report suggests the traditional Bitcoin "four-year cycle" may no longer apply directly to the current market. Key points include potential support from expected Fed easing, a 10.3% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end, increased institutional participation, improved regulation, and macroeconomic support disrupting old cycles. Tokenization of real-world assets and expanding stablecoin use are highlighted as major 2026 themes.

"The Four-Year Cycle" Is No Longer a Universal Formula? Bybit Releases 2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook Report

OKX Wrapped BTC

The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's assessment of rising inflation and its policy path.

Reminder: Please pay close attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

Australia’s inflation remained above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band as higher fuel costs from Middle East supply disruptions compounded already-elevated price pressures to keep policymakers on a tightening path.

Uncertainty around the economic outlook and a leadership transition at the US central bank loom large over this week’s meeting of Federal Reserve officials, who are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Economists: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, waiting for changes in employment and inflation.

Mexico’s central bank will consider one more interest rate cut at its May meeting that may bring an end to the easing cycle it started two years ago, Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said.

The Fed is set to hold rates in what’s likely Powell’s last meeting as chair - then it’ll be Kevin Warsh’s turn in what has become a political hotseat under Donald Trump

UAE Quits OPEC After 59 Years, BTC Slides Below $76K Amid Hormuz Supply Shock

Iran launches airstrikes on US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar

Ukrainian drone attack ignites Tuapse oil refinery, escalating energy strikes

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