ZSWAP will benefit in the short term from improved market sentiment and liquidity, with trading activity and expected fees trending slightly upward. However, beware of potential high-level sell-offs and the risk of swift reversals. Currently, liquidity pool funds are highly concentrated, making pool depth fragile under extreme market conditions, which increases the pressure of slippage and impermanent loss. The protocol team must continuously optimize incentives to stabilize core market makers. For long-term performance, the key lies in sustained growth of TVL and protocol usage. Investors are advised to build positions in batches and use dynamic portfolio adjustment strategies, focusing on on-chain activity and pool asset growth rates, strictly adhering to position and stop-loss discipline to manage volatility and structural divergence risk.

At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin broke through the $90,000 mark and most mainstream altcoins climbed in tandem. Although overall market capitalization has not returned to its peak and fear still dominates sentiment, liquidity has improved but buyers remain cautious. As an emerging liquidity project, ZSWAP is expected to benefit from momentum-driven capital inflows and see a temporary rebound, with a modest increase in trading fees and mining yields. However, once market sentiment faces macro headwinds or profit-taking, selling pressure at high levels should not be ignored, and the risk of rapid reversals must be closely watched.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Currently, prediction markets are mainly based on the Order Book model, characterized by low survival rates and liquidity concentrated in a few top contracts—distinctly different from decentralized AMMs. ZSWAP's liquidity pool faces similar challenges of capital concentration and insufficient depth: on one hand, increased volatility brings surges in trading volume and fees; on the other hand, if participants withdraw collectively, pool depth shrinks rapidly, exposing the protocol to greater risks of slippage and impermanent loss. The protocol needs to continuously refine its incentive mechanisms and pay close attention to the retention of key liquidity providers.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Though short-term sentiment provides opportunities, ZSWAP's ability to stand out in the increasingly competitive DeFi sector depends on sustained growth in protocol usage and TVL. Improvements in macro liquidity and geopolitical factors are fueling a new round of capital allocation; however, market enthusiasm is often fleeting. It is recommended that investors build positions in batches, adjust portfolios dynamically using indicators such as active on-chain addresses and pool asset growth rates, and strictly control positions and stop-losses to cope with volatility risks arising from repeated shifts in sentiment.

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