The current market shows a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with sentiment marginally warming up, but caution is advised against blindly chasing highs. Bulls are beginning to take the lead, while bears face closing pressure combined with replenishment momentum, potentially increasing short-term volatility. Technically, attention should be paid to the key resistance at the upper edge of the range (focus on breakouts of important resistance levels; the current reference range is [XXX-XXX]). Before a breakout occurs, it is recommended to retain a strategy of buying low and selling high, guarding against false breakouts and rapid pullbacks. The medium- and long-term logic remains unchanged, as fundamentals and liquidity continue to support a bullish outlook, so investors are advised to gradually build positions during pullbacks in batches with strict risk management.

Recent on-chain indicators show a slight uptick in liquidity, while the long-short volume ratio is trending towards balance, reflecting a shift in market sentiment from extreme caution to tentative aggression. However, daily charts indicate that prices remain bounded by previous highs and lows, with no clear breakout signals, and the technical picture is still one of consolidation. In the current stage, short-term participants should focus on watching the alternating tests of key support and resistance levels to guard against rapid pullbacks after one-sided moves.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Market commentary suggests that some bears have begun to exit their positions early, reducing their exposure to forced liquidations; however, if prices continue to climb steadily, many late-entry bears will face high-level closing pressure, leading to significant passive buy-to-cover demand. Thus, in the short term, any pullback could further amplify this replenishment momentum, prompting rapid price rebounds. From a trading perspective, be wary of the volatility caused by the interplay between bottom-fishers and those covering shorts.

JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, tweeted that before the big bull market in 2026, short sellers who close positions early will suffer small losses, while those who close later will face heavy losses. He noted that current market pessimists are either just talk or destined to fail. After over a month of market fluctuations, the bulls will prevail, with pessimists always being right but optimists always moving forward.

JackYi: The shorts closed early with a small loss, but closing later will result in a big loss.

Industry observations show that the macro liquidity environment has not tightened, and major institutions remain optimistic about the next bull cycle. Meanwhile, ongoing advances in innovation and ecosystem development continue to provide fundamental support. Even if short-term volatility intensifies, the underlying drivers remain bullish; from a medium- to long-term perspective, the trend is still biased upward. Investors can accumulate positions gradually during pullbacks to capture the continuation of the next phase.

BIG JIM

BoC: Policy hold view after turnover – Rabobank

Goldman Sachs: The Fed leadership change will not quickly alter the rate cut policy.

Goldman Sachs: A change in Fed leadership will not lead to rapid rate cuts

Oil: Brent back above 100 on war risks – DBS

Yu Xin Bank: The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both June and September.

Pakistan’s central bank raised its benchmark rate for the first time in almost three years as the US-Iran war disrupts energy supplies, adding pressure on inflation.

Bank of Canada set to hold rates at 2.25% as oil shock likely short-lived

Bitcoin faces FOMC, GDP, and PCE tests in a busy market week

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