DOLLAR benefits from improved market sentiment and Bitcoin’s liquidity support, presenting short-term structural trading opportunities, but overall remains in a price recovery phase with an unclear trend. Position control and defensive strategies are recommended. Closely monitor whether Bitcoin can maintain stability above the short-term holding cost range (currently around $88,000-90,000). In conjunction with the strong US Dollar Index, explore arbitrage opportunities among stablecoins and diversified hedging strategies. Operationally, initiate positions gradually using limit orders, avoid chasing highs, and strictly manage pullback risks.

At the beginning of the year, the digital asset market saw a rare upward breakout driven by Bitcoin surpassing $90,000, with major altcoins following suit. However, the total market capitalization remains below previous highs, and fear continues to dominate, reflecting the market's ongoing 'price recovery' phase. While current liquidity conditions and macro environment are somewhat positive, data has yet to confirm a trend reversal. In the short term, defensive strategies should take priority as we wait for clearer trading enthusiasm and sector rotation signals. For DOLLAR, market sentiment recovery may bring some capital inflow, but vigilance against sudden pullbacks remains necessary, and strict management of positions and cost is advised.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

Recently, Bitcoin selling pressure has eased significantly, mainly because short-term holders’ average cost is above the current price, reducing profit-taking motivation and thus providing a natural support level. This selling pressure suppression effect is particularly notable during high-level corrections, allowing prices to remain resilient during pullbacks. If Bitcoin can consistently close above the short-term holders’ average cost, it will send a positive signal and strengthen overall bullish confidence. Given that altcoins often track Bitcoin’s movements closely, Bitcoin’s relative stability during this phase will support DOLLAR sentimentally. However, it’s still important to watch for potential risk of sudden selling as short-term holders’ psychology shifts.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel noted that the current BTC price rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This loss limits their selling potential, easing downward pressure. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal would be BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Recently, the US Dollar Index has edged higher, indicating continued USD strength against major currencies. In this environment, investors prefer USD-denominated assets. Meanwhile, USDT has shown a discount in domestic OTC markets, reflecting the arbitrage demand for stablecoins amid RMB strength. When holding DOLLAR, it is recommended to also monitor price spread opportunities among different stablecoins, and consider diversified hedging solutions such as euro stablecoins or gold tokens to mitigate currency fluctuation risks. Based on on-chain liquidity conditions, setting limit orders or staggered entry strategies can help lock in spread profits and avoid significant one-off slippage.

The article discusses the negative premium of USDT amid the strengthening Chinese yuan and how investors should respond. It explains the yuan's appreciation due to factors like attracting foreign investment, boosting consumption, and easing trade tensions. The USDT discount is attributed to crypto market weakness, increased demand for yuan conversion via USDT, and tightened Chinese regulations. The author advises maintaining stablecoin holdings but suggests hedging currency risk through on-chain strategies, such as using euro stablecoins, gold tokens, or regional stablecoins to mitigate exchange losses.

How should we respond to the negative premium of USDT, where holding stablecoins is still losing money?

Dollar

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Global markets are fretting about growth due to the war in Iran. A slowdown is something stocks can handle. However, the risk that the global economy tips the wrong way is also increasing.

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