HOLD has now entered the early stages of a bull market driven by technical and sentiment resonance. Short-term moving average golden cross and narrowing trading ranges clearly signal upward momentum. It is expected that the dominant trend in 2024 will be led by value investing. However, attention should be paid to structural liquidity deficiencies in the market—trading outside mainstream contracts remains sluggish, and under the Orderbook model, there may be insufficient order depth and sudden slippage. It is recommended to control positions carefully, diversify order placements appropriately, and monitor long-term theme fund flows to optimize liquidity protection. Strategically, holding with the trend and increasing positions at opportunities is suggested. The short-term price target range is 3.80~4.20, while the medium-term outlook is towards 4.80. Both upside risk and liquidity risk need to be dynamically and simultaneously managed.

Recently, the market style has shifted back towards trend and value, with investors preferring to position with the trend and avoid pure speculation. The founder of Liquid Capital emphasizes that the main strategy is to buy with the trend during bull markets and exit appropriately during bear markets, rather than trying to perfectly catch the lowest or highest points. Additionally, both macroeconomic and industry fundamentals have laid the foundation for a bull market in 2024, and the outlook is increasingly positive after short-term turbulence. CryptoQuant data shows that multiple momentum indicators are stabilizing, indicating initial signs of sentiment recovery in the market. From a technical perspective, HOLD’s recent price fluctuations have narrowed, short-term moving averages have formed a golden cross and are diverging upwards, confirming tentative bullish moves. Short-term sentiment is expected to further improve.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Market-making models in prediction markets require ongoing management of inventory risk and are prone to sharp gaps and unilateral movements triggered by major events, making it difficult for ordinary market makers to profit stably over time. Although mainstream platforms use subsidies to attract trading activity, liquidity remains heavily concentrated in a few popular contracts, while short-term varieties suffer from insufficient trading activity and often experience zero-volume trading intervals. For HOLD, if adopting an Orderbook mechanism, caution is needed regarding slippage and insufficient order depth in low-frequency trading environments, as well as controlling single order sizes and exposure. At the same time, monitoring potential capital inflows into long-term contracts or geopolitical themes may help enhance overall trading activity and liquidity protection.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Everybody

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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