GETH is currently in a favorable window marked by the recovery of macro liquidity and the valuation resonance of mainstream assets. Benefiting from the continuous expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem and the inflow of ETF funds, it possesses a stage-based sentiment premium. The significant deleveraging in the futures market has lowered systemic extreme risks, providing a downward buffer for GETH’s price structure. Investors are advised to consider both trend and value, actively seize long opportunities in the $320–$350 range, and use the key support at $280 as a defensive line during market pullbacks. It's important to strengthen dynamic position management to adapt to the late bull market environment and the growth trajectory of the ecosystem.

At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin and Ethereum both broke through key integer price thresholds, indicating a notable improvement in market liquidity that drove up the overall valuation of crypto assets. Although trading volumes and ETF inflows are active, fear and cautious sentiment still dominate. Against this backdrop, GETH—serving as a key application layer token within the Ethereum ecosystem—has the potential to follow mainstream assets and capture a phase-specific sentiment premium in the short term. However, caution is warranted as market sentiment hasn’t fully transitioned to optimism, which may result in volatility.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Gate Ventures reports a rebound in the cryptocurrency market with BTC and ETH rising 4.13% and 6.61%, respectively, boosting total crypto market cap by 4.82%. ETF inflows improved, reversing two weeks of outflows, with BTC and ETH ETFs gaining approximately $459 million and $161 million. Despite price gains, market sentiment remains in "extreme fear." Mid- and small-cap assets outperformed, led by Memecoins. Ecosystem growth is driven by Ethereum scaling, institutional tokenized finance, and demand for compliant decentralized AI infrastructure. Four funding events raised about $17 million, mainly for data and infrastructure, signaling ongoing long-term development amid cautious short-term sentiment.

Gate Ventures: The cryptocurrency market rebounds, ETF fund inflows signal improvements in market structure.

Since October 2025, BTC and ETH futures markets have cleared nearly $30 billion in leverage, making overall market positions lighter. Meanwhile, if ETH falls below $2,952 or breaks above $3,252, it would trigger billions of dollars in long and short liquidations. This deleveraging process has reduced extreme risks, helping market movements align more closely with fundamentals. As a result, GETH’s corrections during sharp volatility may be somewhat limited, laying a more solid foundation for medium-term trends.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if ETH falls below $2,952, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.154 billion. Conversely, if ETH breaks above $3,252, the total short position liquidation on major CEX will reach $995 million.

Data: If ETH falls below $2,952, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.154 billion.

Matrixport's latest analysis indicates that after a significant deleveraging in the derivatives market, the crypto market may establish a more solid foundation for a new rally in 2026. Since October 2025, nearly $30 billion in leverage from BTC and ETH futures contracts has been cleared, resulting in lighter positions and lower leverage. This shift is expected to bring prices closer to fundamental values and open up upside potential as speculative overheating cools down.

Matrixport: After the clearing of derivative leverage, a new round of market trends may begin in 2026 on a more robust foundation.

Leading institutions emphasize actively deploying during bull markets and taking profit cautiously in bear markets, combining trend investing with value investing. From both a macroeconomic and industry fundamentals perspective, 2026 remains in the late stage of the bull market, highlighting the allocation value of infrastructure layer tokens within the Ethereum ecosystem. GETH maintains sustained demand in governance, network scalability, and DeFi applications, reflecting its long-term value. If early trends reverse in the short term, investors can control drawdowns through position management, adapting to the major trend for potential gains.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Recently, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen a net inflow totaling over $60 million, and blockchain-related stocks have mostly recorded double-digit gains, indicating a renewed enthusiasm from institutions. As an important component of the Ethereum network, GETH stands to benefit from infrastructure investments driven by ecosystem funding and compliance progress. Meanwhile, the outperformance of small and mid-cap assets also presents short-term arbitrage opportunities for GETH. It is recommended to monitor key support levels and trading volume correlation.

On January 6, US stocks closed higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.23% to a new high. The S&P 500 rose 0.64%, and the Nasdaq increased 0.69%. Chevron gained 5.2%, nearing a record high, while Tesla rose 3%. Blockchain-related stocks also saw broad gains, including Circle up 1.59%, MicroStrategy up 4.81%, and Coinbase up 7.77%.

U.S. stock market close: Dow Jones hits a new high, blockchain concept stocks broadly rise.

Geist ETH

The crypto market surged and then pulled back, with the RWA sector leading the decline at 4.18%.

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