After a brief depegging in April, XUSD quickly returned to $1.000, demonstrating robust redemption and liquidity mechanisms and strong market confidence in its peg. From a macro perspective, increased institutional allocation to digital assets and expanding market liquidity have intensified the dynamic allocation of capital between stablecoins and high-risk assets. The negative funding rate in derivatives and rising demand for options protection reflect diverging investor risk preferences and a more cautious trading stance, leading to increased short-term demand for holding XUSD. It is advised to monitor XUSD’s stability within the 0.995-1.007 range and adjust allocations flexibly in response to market liquidity changes, prioritizing capital safety while moderately participating in yield-based strategies to enhance portfolio robustness.

From the daily chart, XUSD traded for most of the past month within the 0.995 to 1.007 range, with only a brief dip to 0.980 on April 15 before quickly rebounding above 1.000, accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume. This demonstrates the stablecoin’s ability to maintain a 1:1 peg to the US dollar amid market volatility. The strong alignment of average price and trading volume confirms market confidence in XUSD’s redemption and payout mechanisms.

Recently, the digital asset market has seen significant institutional capital inflows, including positive net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the restoration of trading platform premiums, all of which have, to some extent, increased overall risk appetite. Capital migrating from the US dollar and traditional assets to crypto assets implies that investors are dynamically allocating between relatively safe stablecoins and high-yield risk assets. In the short term, this may divert some redemption demand from XUSD, but in the long run, it still benefits from expanding market liquidity and USD-denominated demand.

Bitcoin has risen 8% in the past two weeks, reaching around $74,000. Max Kahn, CEO of Digital Wealth Partners, identifies three key factors for the next surge: energy-driven inflation trends, Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations favoring easing if inflation is controlled, and continued institutional inflows, with Bitcoin ETFs recording $523 million net inflow in April, extending strong momentum since March.

Analysis: Bitcoin "Fear Has Receded," Three Major Catalysts Support Price Surge to $75,000

According to Coinglass data on April 16, Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 8 consecutive days, currently at 0.0401%, indicating a continued recovery in US market buying sentiment after 15 days of negative premium. The index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to the global average, reflecting US market capital flow, institutional interest, and market sentiment. Positive premium suggests strong US buying, active institutional participation, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investor sentiment.

Buying sentiment in the US market continues to improve, with the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index remaining positive for 8 consecutive days.

Derivative market data shows perpetual contract funding rates remain negative without significant normalization, and demand for downside protection in the options market is rising. This indicates bulls are adding to their positions cautiously and remain conservative about further rebounds. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is testing key support and resistance, and macro as well as geopolitical developments are still unfolding. Overall, the market sentiment is characterized by a ‘wait-and-see’ approach—avoiding chasing rallies or attempting to catch bottoms. Such volatility increases temporary demand for stablecoin holdings among investors.

Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% weekly, driven mainly by spot buying rather than broad risk appetite. Derivatives markets show caution: perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest declines, and options indicate higher demand for downside protection. This suggests a rebound, not a trend reversal, amid ongoing risk aversion and cautious sentiment despite gains.

Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

On April 17, Coinglass data showed that as Bitcoin maintained a volatile trend, the funding rates on major CEX and DEX platforms indicated a deepening bearish sentiment in the market. Funding rates, used to balance perpetual contract prices with underlying asset prices, reflect trader sentiment: rates above 0.01% signal bullishness, while rates below 0.005% indicate bearishness. Current rates suggest increased market pessimism.

The current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate a deepening bearish sentiment in the market.

Bitcoin recently surpassed $75,000 for the first time in 73 days, facing resistance near $78,000 with $74,000 seen as a critical support level for further gains. Market views diverge: bears cite weak macro liquidity and reliance on short-covering, while bulls highlight strong whale accumulation and potential breakthroughs above key moving averages. The broader market shows mixed signals amid geopolitical developments and fluctuating investor sentiment.

Trading moment: BTC encountered resistance at 78K, and it needs to hold 74K to aim for a breakthrough.

StoneX analyst Matt Simpson stated in a research report that based on technical analysis, the US dollar index may see a slight short-term increase. Currently near 98.249, the index formed a "slightly bullish" pattern on the 200-day simple moving average on Thursday, with the two-day relative strength index in an extremely oversold state. However, multiple resistance levels exist, including the 98.44 200-day moving average that bulls need to test.

StoneX analyst: The US dollar index may rise slightly in the short term.

According to statistics, the total supply of stablecoins has now exceeded $180 billion, accounting for nearly 60% of the global stablecoin market, highlighting the industry’s expansion and growing user acceptance. Against this backdrop, XUSD—being part of this ecosystem—benefits from scale effects and deep liquidity pools. Going forward, as trends in decentralization and compliance advance in tandem, XUSD’s market acceptance and use cases are expected to expand further, forming a healthy supply-demand structure.

In Q1 2026, the Ethereum to Bitcoin price ratio (ETH/BTC) rebounded to 0.0313, a three-month high, indicating a recovery in the crypto market. Ethereum network users grew 82% year-on-year to 284,000, with transaction volume reaching 200.4 million. Stablecoin supply exceeded $180 billion, about 60% of the global market. Analysts suggest that if ETH/BTC closes above 0.035 weekly, it signals continued inflows into Ethereum and high-risk assets. Bitcoin remains above $74,000, supported by over $56 billion inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Analysis: Ethereum-Bitcoin price ratio rebounds, overall crypto market recovers

StraitsX XUSD

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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