In the current macro environment, risk appetite remains low. After retreating from its recent highs, ALU prices are narrowly oscillating within the 0.00525–0.00578 USDT range. The 0.00456 USDT level is a key support, while the 0.00578 USDT level constitutes significant resistance. In the short term, attention should be paid to the direction of a potential breakout and changes in trading volume. In the medium to long term, regulatory progress and institutional participation are driving market institutionalization. Coupled with expanding ecosystem applications, capital flows are expected to improve. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines in the short term; if the policy and funding situation continue to improve, investors may consider buying on dips to capitalize on the medium- to long-term allocation value driven by future incremental capital.

Recently, the combination of multiple geopolitical and macroeconomic factors has heightened market risk aversion, putting pressure on digital assets as a whole. From ongoing tensions in the Gulf region to major central banks maintaining high interest rate policies, global risk asset volatility has risen significantly. Bitcoin found interim support around $64,000, but Ethereum has faced considerable selling pressure, and overall market sentiment remains cautious. Against this backdrop, ALU prices have continued to fall from early-month highs, reflecting investors' sensitivity to short-term macro risks.

A deep structural market adjustment is underway amid fears of AI-driven economic disruption, with major tech stocks falling but recovering after reassurances from AI firms. Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated as a key indicator of the AI market's trajectory. Bitcoin finds support around $64,000 despite volatility and sell-offs, while Ethereum faces significant selling pressure. The crypto market remains in extreme fear, with institutional investors cautiously re-entering.

Trading Moment: After AI "ghost stories," Nvidia's earnings report is approaching, and BTC finds support at 64K.

If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period, the global economy may face a "certain recession." Experts warn that triple-digit oil prices could be just the tip of the iceberg of global concerns.

Futures Hotspot Tracking

Key market insights on March 4 highlight the US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz affecting global markets, with US stocks narrowing losses, Asia-Pacific markets plunging, and cryptocurrencies slightly rebounding. OpenAI's core research staff moved to Anthropic. The US dollar strengthened over 1%, causing declines in non-dollar currencies. Neo's founders face internal disputes over alleged fund misuse. Binance launched seven AI Agent Skills covering wallet data and spot APIs.

March 4 Key Market Information Gap, Must Read! | Alpha Morning Report

Before Jerome Powell officially takes over the Federal Reserve, significant internal resistance has already made the path to interest rate cuts challenging.

On the daily chart, after retreating from the February 25 high of 0.00549 USDT, ALU has been consolidating sideways within the 0.00525–0.00578 USDT range. The price quickly rebounded after hitting a phase low at 0.00456 USDT on February 23, underscoring this level as strong support. However, multiple recent attempts to break through the 0.00578 USDT resistance have failed, resulting in a box-range trading pattern. Trading volumes have shrunk alongside the range-bound moves, indicating that both bulls and bears are adopting a wait-and-see attitude in the short term. Additionally, the price has found support at the convergence of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages but has yet to make a clear breakout, making it necessary to monitor volume changes and the breach of range boundaries.

As the regulatory framework becomes clearer and major financial institutions accelerate their involvement, institutionalization of the crypto market continues apace. Token security frameworks submitted by regulators, along with major asset managers applying for spot Bitcoin ETFs, are injecting expectations of long-term capital inflows into the market. Meanwhile, developments at the ecosystem level, such as enhanced native wallet capabilities and the expansion of on-chain applications, are helping to boost genuine demand for underlying assets. If risk appetite gradually recovers under the influence of policy and institutional drivers, ALU is poised to benefit from incremental capital allocation in the medium- to long-term market.

Key market updates on February 27 include the completion of ETH sales from Vitalik's project budget address after 23 days, exposure of Axiom employees abusing access to track user wallets for insider trading, mixed opening for US crypto stocks with CRCL up 1.94% and HSDT down 6.45%, MetaMask Card's full launch in the US featuring metal cards and on-chain cashback, and the TRUMP meme coin team transferring 5 million TRUMP tokens (~$17.3 million) to Binance via BitGo.

Key Market Information Gap on February 27, Must-Read! | Alpha Morning Report

Altura

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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