Currently, BTC2 faces both market risks and opportunities: The cost basis of short-term holders is above the current price, reducing selling pressure and supporting the price range of $87,000~$95,000; large-scale straddle strategies in the options market indicate a consensus expectation of significant volatility ahead, with direction uncertain but a high probability of sharp price swings; ETF capital inflows and institutional participation strengthen mid-to-long term allocation value, while policy and regulatory prospects continue to improve; however, leverage is concentrated, and an effective breakthrough above $95,000 or a drop below $87,000 could trigger liquidations on both sides, leading to severe volatility. It is recommended to focus on risk control and flexible position management within the sector, wait for signals from key price level breakouts, and prioritize long-term asset allocation opportunities.

Currently, BTC2's price has shown relative resilience amid corrections, partly due to the average cost basis of short-term holders being higher than the current price, making it difficult for them to take profits while in a book-loss position. This reduces selling pressure. This phenomenon has persisted after multiple pullbacks, indicating a certain level of demand support at the current price. However, caution is warranted: if the price reaches their average cost basis, short-term holders may close positions and exit, which would significantly increase selling pressure and pose short-term risks to the market.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

In the BTC2 options market, a large-scale straddle strategy demonstrates that traders expect significant price volatility ahead. This strategy involves simultaneously buying out-of-the-money call options and put options, suggesting traders anticipate strong price movements on both the upside and downside before expiration. This speculative sentiment reflects the market's lack of consensus on future direction but a unanimous bet on higher volatility, suggesting that short-term sentiment-driven price swings are likely to intensify.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

Recent ETF inflows have reversed two consecutive weeks of outflows, with Bitcoin- and Ethereum-related ETFs each recording close to several hundred million dollars in net inflows. Coupled with continued efforts by traditional financial institutions to integrate compliant blockchain applications and asset tokenization, this reflects sustained long-term allocation demand on the capital side. On a macro level, the expected increase in the probability of Federal Reserve easing and progressive regulatory framework improvements also provide institutional and market depth support for digital assets, signaling a constructive long-term fundamental outlook.

Gate Ventures reports a rebound in the cryptocurrency market with BTC and ETH rising 4.13% and 6.61%, respectively, boosting total crypto market cap by 4.82%. ETF inflows improved, reversing two weeks of outflows, with BTC and ETH ETFs gaining approximately $459 million and $161 million. Despite price gains, market sentiment remains in "extreme fear." Mid- and small-cap assets outperformed, led by Memecoins. Ecosystem growth is driven by Ethereum scaling, institutional tokenized finance, and demand for compliant decentralized AI infrastructure. Four funding events raised about $17 million, mainly for data and infrastructure, signaling ongoing long-term development amid cautious short-term sentiment.

Gate Ventures: The cryptocurrency market rebounds, ETF fund inflows signal improvements in market structure.

Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook report suggests the traditional Bitcoin "four-year cycle" may no longer apply directly to the current market. Key points include potential support from expected Fed easing, a 10.3% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end, increased institutional participation, improved regulation, and macroeconomic support disrupting old cycles. Tokenization of real-world assets and expanding stablecoin use are highlighted as major 2026 themes.

"The Four-Year Cycle" Is No Longer a Universal Formula? Bybit Releases 2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook Report

As the market retraces, financing rates for long positions remain positive, indicating high-leverage buyers are aggressively buying the dip. However, there is heavy position concentration at several key price ranges, and a decisive move in either direction could trigger massive liquidations. If the price breaks above the $95,000 range, short coverings could accelerate an upward move; if it breaks below around $87,000, forced long liquidations could trigger a new wave of declines. Such two-way liquidation risks mean the market could experience significant short-term volatility.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $95,649, the total short position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.532 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $87,099, the total long position liquidations on major CEXs will amount to $1.87 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $95,649, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.532 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $94,311, the total short position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.798 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $86,127, the total long position liquidation on major CEX will amount to $1.834 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $94,311, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.798 billion.

Bitcoin rebounded to around $90,500 after testing a key support near $89,200, marking its third consecutive day of pullback following a peak near $95,000. The decline is attributed to low trading volume and profit-taking. Market leverage is rising, with perpetual contract funding rates positive, indicating traders are using leverage to buy the dip. However, this concentrated long positioning increases the risk of forced liquidations and additional selling pressure if prices fall further.

Analysis: The key support level for Bitcoin is around $89,200, with traders still using leverage to buy the dip.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

Bitcoin 2.0

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Federal Reserve's Logan should not imply easing policy guidance.

The Federal Reserve's Kashkari and Harker stated that the conflict has changed the interest rate outlook, and maintaining an accommodative stance is no longer appropriate.

Global news you need to know before the US stock market opens on Friday.

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