BTCBULL is currently in a solid bottoming phase. Bitcoin has established key support at $87,000. A breakout above $92,000 is expected to extend the rally, targeting $104,000. If support is breached to the downside, be cautious of an accelerated pullback. Liquidity restoration and marginal improvement in market sentiment provide a short-term window for leveraged product trading. Strategically, it is advised to flexibly adjust positions around range supports and breakout points, capturing profit opportunities under high volatility while strictly controlling downside risks. Pay attention to the impact of macro and geopolitical events on short-term trends.

Recently, Bitcoin has been oscillating in the $85,000 to $94,000 range. After an ETF-driven risk-off phase at the end of the year, market liquidity has started to pick up. Mainstream cryptocurrencies have rebounded slightly, but total market capitalization remains below previous highs, with overall sentiment remaining cautious. In this 'price recovery' environment, BTCBULL benefits from the stable bottoming of underlying assets. Investors can watch for potential leveraged profit opportunities as sentiment improves.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

Bitfinex Alpha report highlights that after a month of low liquidity and reduced volatility, Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization and minor reversal in early 2026, trading within a narrow range of $85,000 to $94,000. The ETF-driven sell-off slowed significantly by the end of last year, suggesting the "de-risking" phase may be over. Strategy has increased Bitcoin holdings for several weeks, with market liquidity expected to improve in early 2026.

Bitfinex: Bitcoin is fluctuating narrowly between $85K and $94K, and liquidity conditions may improve.

On-chain data suggests significant accumulation of Bitcoin around $87,000, confirming this level as short-term support multiple times. Meanwhile, the price remains above the 21-day moving average, indicating that bulls still have resilience. Should the price break above $92,000, it could challenge resistance above $104,000; conversely, a break below $87,000 may trigger an accelerated pullback. For BTCBULL, these support levels are crucial for managing drawdowns, keeping downside risks relatively controllable.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

Market options data shows that investors are positioning for increased future volatility by adopting straddle strategies, with a notable rise in call option allocations, signaling short-term bullish expectations. Substantial straddle setups project a possible breakout to $28,000 or a pullback to $12,000 before the end of March. Rising volatility expectations will amplify BTCBULL's leverage effect, making it suitable for capturing short-term trends in a high-volatility environment, but attention must also be paid to two-way risks.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Internal and external US-Venezuelan policies have increased attention to the Latin American market, especially rumors regarding a certain sovereign state's massive 'shadow Bitcoin reserves' and its use of USDT in commodity trade, strengthening market expectations of crypto assets’ hedging properties. Meanwhile, macro events such as international oil organization meetings may spark short-term sentiment swings. Overall, these factors offer additional bullish catalysts for BTCBULL.

Bitcoin Bull

Insiders: The Bank of Japan is inclined not to raise interest rates in April but will maintain a tightening stance.

EUR/USD: Foreign inflows support upside potential – ING

Summary of Wash's Past Statements: How Will This Prospective "New Leader" Disrupt the Federal Reserve?

Gold: Inflation and Fed risks cap upside – ING

ECB: Lagarde Signals No Near-Term Rate Move – Danske Bank

Nikkei: Bank of Japan to hold rates steady in April

Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Vows Fed Independence Despite Trump’s Push for Rate Cuts

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April has reached 100%.

US Treasuries are still pricing in a war in the Middle East that other asset classes have shrugged off, setting up a drop in yields as they catch up, according to Bank of America.

Lagarde: Broad fiscal support will force the European Central Bank to raise key interest rates.

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