BRETT is currently fluctuating within the 0.0069–0.00735 range. In the short term, it benefits from a resurgence in Bitcoin ETF liquidity and an improvement in market risk appetite, while technically, bulls and bears are temporarily balanced. Attention should be paid to rising risk-aversion sentiment caused by macro inflation and geopolitical disruptions. If the 0.0069 support is breached, further selling pressure may be triggered; conversely, if a wave of liquidations increases market volume, BRETT may break above 0.00735. Investors are advised to closely monitor both ends of the range and market liquidity turning points, and to flexibly adjust their positions to cope with potential volatility.

Recently, spot Bitcoin ETF daily net inflows reached their highest since mid-January. Short-term holders are no longer at a loss, and the Fear and Greed Index has rebounded from the fear zone to neutral, significantly improving overall liquidity. Against this backdrop, market risk appetite has warmed, effectively driving up trading enthusiasm for small- and mid-cap tokens. After a rapid surge with nearly 270 million in high trading volume in mid-April, BRETT entered a consolidation range, but with the overall market’s loose funding conditions, bulls still have a chance to break upward toward the 0.00735 resistance area if volume returns. The short-term sentiment remains bullish.

Bitcoin demand structure is gradually recovering, supported by continuous purchases from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and a rising Coinbase Premium. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a daily net inflow of $664 million, the highest since mid-January. Combined corporate buying, ETF inflows, U.S. spot demand, and stablecoin capital returning are strengthening liquidity. Analysts suggest a new trading range is forming, with increasing chances of price moving toward the upper range, though gains won't be linear.

Bitcoin demand structure is recovering, with ETF single-day net inflows hitting the highest since mid-January.

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin short-term holders' discount has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, with the STH-SOPR 7-day average rising above 1, indicating short-term sellers are no longer clearly at a loss. However, the current price remains below the $83,000 cost basis, suggesting the market has not yet entered a true risk-on phase.

Data: Analysis: Short-term Bitcoin holders' discount narrows, market warms up but risk appetite has not yet started.

Bitcoin rose 2% to $7,910 and Ethereum 3% to $2,388 amid easing geopolitical tensions, boosting Asian markets with Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi hitting record highs. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw $823.7 million net inflows for the fourth consecutive week. The crypto fear and greed index improved from 29 (fear) to 47 (neutral). Analyst Dominick John attributes gains to ETF inflows, technical breakthroughs, and reduced risk aversion.

Analyst: Both the crypto market and Asian stock markets rise amid easing geopolitical tensions.

Japan's Corporate Service Price Index exceeded expectations, and turbulence in the Middle East triggered a sharp rise in crude oil, reinforcing global inflation and tightening monetary policy expectations, and driving up safe haven sentiment. On April 18–19, BRETT’s price swiftly retreated from the 0.0077 area to around 0.0066, reflecting the pressure on risk assets amid macro uncertainties. In the medium term, if subsequent macro data remains high, the strength of 0.0069 support will be further tested, and increased selling pressure could ensue if the lower end of the range is breached.

BTC's upward momentum slowed near $77,800 after rising from $65,000, with ETH also declining about 0.8%. Market pressure stems from Japan's March corporate service price index rising 3.1% YoY, suggesting possible BOJ rate hikes and a stronger yen, which may trigger risk asset sell-offs. Additionally, ongoing Iran conflict disrupts oil transport, pushing WTI crude over 40% higher to $96/barrel, sustaining inflation concerns and limiting Fed rate cut prospects.

Analysis: BTC's upward momentum is hindered as Japanese inflation data and the Iran war trigger market risk aversion sentiment.

On April 24, the crypto market weakened with BTC hovering around $77,800, slowing its rise from $65,000. ETH fell about 0.8%, underperforming BTC. Market pressure stemmed from Japan's March corporate service price index rising 3.1%, exceeding expectations and signaling possible BOJ rate hikes, strengthening the yen and risking global asset sell-offs. Additionally, ongoing Iran conflict disrupted oil transport, pushing WTI crude over $96/barrel, raising inflation concerns and limiting Fed rate cut prospects.

Analysis: BTC's upward momentum is hindered as Japanese inflation data and the Iran conflict trigger market risk aversion.

On the daily chart, BRETT has established a clear oscillating pattern within the 0.0069–0.00735 range since April 21, with moving averages trending parallel and trading volume fluctuating without sustained expansion. This indicates a temporary equilibrium between bulls and bears. Meanwhile, strong short positions in the market have pushed borrowing rates to their highest in nearly two years. If a wave of liquidations occurs in the short term, a synchronized volatility across crypto assets may follow, offering BRETT a directional breakout opportunity. Traders should focus on the upper and lower bounds of the range and the trigger of liquidation risk events to seize potential breakout opportunities.

Despite recent Bitcoin price gains, investors are increasingly betting on a price decline. Data from CEX.IO shows short sellers paying rates around 11%, peaking at 19%, the highest since early 2023. Concurrently, Bitcoin is undergoing one of its largest accumulation phases. The simultaneous rise in strong buying and short positions suggests potential significant price volatility, with the possibility of a short squeeze or a reverse shock. Bitcoin currently down 1.6% at $75,754.

Analysis: Bitcoin short positions surge, market prepares for significant volatility.

Brett (ETH)

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