Driven by geopolitical tensions and risk aversion sentiment, FLUID was temporarily pressured around the $1.60 level, with a surge in trading volumes but limited follow-up from the bulls. Subsequently, as bullish sentiment towards Ethereum and major coins recovered, FLUID confirmed bottom support in the $1.50–$1.60 range and, relying on increased volumes, initially built a foundation for a rebound. Current technical structure indicates short-term oscillation between $1.60 and $1.73. A break above $1.70 is expected to challenge the $1.73 resistance, while falling below $1.58 calls for caution regarding pullback risks. It is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities within the $1.58–$1.73 range; a breakout on strong volumes could warrant increasing positions, whereas a breakdown should trigger strict stop-losses.

Recently, news of the Hormuz Strait blockade triggered a sharp rise in oil prices and a strengthening of the US dollar, leading to decreased market risk appetite. From FLUID's daily chart, April 12 saw a significant bearish candlestick, with the closing price dropping to $1.576 and trading volume simultaneously surging, indicating insufficient willingness among bulls to take over. With risk aversion sentiment spreading, there is clear resistance around the $1.60 level in the short term.

Due to Trump's order to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged, US stock futures fell, and the dollar strengthened. This escalation followed failed US-Iran talks in Pakistan, disappointing investors. Elias Haddad from Brown Brothers Harriman noted this will likely reignite risk aversion this week. Investors are also focused on the upcoming Q1 earnings season, seeking corporate leaders' views on rising risks.

Earnings season intertwined with geopolitical crises, market risk aversion reignites.

With the return of Ethereum bulls and a rebound in derivatives demand, the major coin market witnessed a wave of recovery. After FLUID touched a low near $1.50 on April 2, it reclaimed the $1.60 mark on April 6 with trading volume exceeding 1.39 million, and continued to oscillate upwards, demonstrating strong bull support. Technically, the surge in trading volume that day confirmed the validity of the bottom support area, suggesting the rebound trend may continue in the near future.

Market data shows Ethereum buyers are returning, with bulls defending the $2000 support level. Since March 6, Ethereum's aggressive buying volume has remained positive, indicating a recovery in derivatives market demand. The buying pressure dominates at $104 million, marking the first such shift in Ethereum derivatives since the last bear market. Futures open interest nears a historic high, and spot Ethereum ETFs saw a $120 million net inflow, the highest since mid-March.

Analysis: Ethereum's proactive order consumption has remained positive since March, signaling a recovery in the derivatives market.

After breaking above $72,000 on the 9th, Bitcoin climbed again above $74,000 on the 14th, with heightened volatility in the derivatives market setting the tone for the sector. As a result, FLUID posted significant gains on April 9–10, reaching an intraday high of $1.685. However, subsequent negative gamma effects increased volatility, causing the price to retreat and oscillate within the $1.60–$1.73 range. The daily chart shows that sustained holding above $1.70 warrants watching the $1.73 resistance above; if it falls below $1.58, beware of potential swing pullback risks.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

Fluid

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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FLUID price today is 1.78, with a live price change of 3.94 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade FLUID on Bybit-eu.

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