Amid expectations of a Fed rate cut, SPEC has recently seen a significant increase in volatility. In the short term, risk appetite rebounded but quickly fell back, reflecting the market's sensitive response to differing views on the rate cut path, with speculative capital visibly contracting. From a technical perspective, $0.11 serves as a key support level; if it holds, a short-term bottom may form. In the medium to long term, expectations of prolonged Fed liquidity easing and extended dot plot projections will provide room for risk asset revaluation. It is recommended to take a cautious and wait-and-see approach in the short term, closely watching the $0.11 support. If it stabilizes, consider moderate buying strategies on dips, and await medium- to long-term allocation opportunities once policy direction becomes clear.

The market is pricing in a 90% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this week, which briefly bolstered short-term risk appetite. However, the market has also started to focus on potential disagreements within the committee regarding the magnitude and subsequent path of rate cuts. This uncertainty has led speculative funds to gradually retreat before any sensitive news materializes, with intraday volatility on news release day manifesting as an initial surge followed by a rapid pullback.

From a daily chart perspective, since SPEC peaked near $0.19 at the end of November, it has entered a continuous pullback through mid-December, with closing prices declining from $0.19 to near $0.11. Successive bearish candlesticks and a notable increase in volume during the main downturn indicate selling pressure dominance. The first short-term support is set at $0.11; if this level holds, a bottom could form and wait for confirmation from new liquidity signals.

Beyond short-term rate cuts, the Fed is set to release a new dot plot in its quarterly economic outlook and has committed to ongoing support through 2026, suggesting a relatively loose medium- to long-term liquidity environment. For SPEC, if actual rate cuts materialize and low financing costs persist, a valuation recovery for risk assets may emerge over the medium- to long-term. However, attention should be paid to the short-term wait-and-see stance of funds and macroeconomic disagreements, which could result in unclear market directions.

Spectral

Insiders: The Bank of Japan is inclined not to raise interest rates in April but will maintain a tightening stance.

EUR/USD: Foreign inflows support upside potential – ING

Summary of Wash's Past Statements: How Will This Prospective "New Leader" Disrupt the Federal Reserve?

Gold: Inflation and Fed risks cap upside – ING

ECB: Lagarde Signals No Near-Term Rate Move – Danske Bank

Nikkei: Bank of Japan to hold rates steady in April

Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Vows Fed Independence Despite Trump’s Push for Rate Cuts

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April has reached 100%.

US Treasuries are still pricing in a war in the Middle East that other asset classes have shrugged off, setting up a drop in yields as they catch up, according to Bank of America.

Lagarde: Broad fiscal support will force the European Central Bank to raise key interest rates.

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SPEC price today is 0.09, with a live price change of 0.16 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade SPEC on Bybit-eu.

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