TERMINAL is currently facing a liquidity shortage. In the short term, due to tight funding conditions and insufficient derivatives trading, market activity is limited and prices are unlikely to experience a rapid surge. Investors are advised to maintain low leverage and control their positions. Although there are initial signs of market recovery, with the Z-Score indicator turning positive, the bottom has not been confirmed yet—caution against premature optimism is necessary. In the medium to long term, the moderate expansion led by Bitcoin spot trading establishes a healthy industry foundation. Based on its data platform characteristics, TERMINAL is expected to benefit from the rising demand for asset allocation and can be moderately positioned during technical pullbacks. Focus on the 204-220 range for support formation.

Recently, key indicators of the overall crypto market have started to show signs of improvement; prices have stabilized and are gradually rebounding, though the trend is not yet firmly established. While several Z-Score indicators are turning positive, suggesting a recovery in market sentiment, the short-term data remains insufficiently validated. Investors should manage their position sizes and avoid losses caused by assuming a market bottom too early.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Data from derivatives and prediction markets show that short-term contract trading volumes remain subdued, mainly concentrated in a few top contracts, with overall liquidity still tight. For TERMINAL, which relies on market breadth and depth, liquidity shortages may lead to wider bid-ask spreads, limit market volatility, and make explosive short-term rallies unlikely.

PANews analyzed 295,000 historical markets on Polymarket, revealing that 63.16% of short-term markets (under 1 day) had zero transactions in 24 hours. Short-term crypto markets suffer from low liquidity, with sports markets averaging $1.32 million in volume, 30 times higher than crypto's $44,000. A small number of top contracts (505) account for 47% of total volume. Long-term markets (>30 days) have 45 times more liquidity, led by US politics. Geopolitical markets are the fastest-growing segment. Polymarket is polarizing into "high-frequency sports betting" and "macro political hedging," with liquidity concentrated in few top narratives.

PANews data: 63% of the short-term market on Polymarket had 0 transactions in the last 24 hours, with 505 top contracts accounting for 47% of the trading volume.

The Bitcoin market has shifted from a deleveraging phase to moderate expansion. The spot-driven steady rise reduces forced liquidation risk, providing the whole market with a healthier capital structure. Against this backdrop, TERMINAL gains support in terms of its medium- to long-term value, and as a market data analytics platform, its demand is likely to rise in line with macro positioning and asset allocation needs.

Terminal

Insiders: The Bank of Japan is inclined not to raise interest rates in April but will maintain a tightening stance.

EUR/USD: Foreign inflows support upside potential – ING

Summary of Wash's Past Statements: How Will This Prospective "New Leader" Disrupt the Federal Reserve?

Gold: Inflation and Fed risks cap upside – ING

ECB: Lagarde Signals No Near-Term Rate Move – Danske Bank

Nikkei: Bank of Japan to hold rates steady in April

Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Vows Fed Independence Despite Trump’s Push for Rate Cuts

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April has reached 100%.

US Treasuries are still pricing in a war in the Middle East that other asset classes have shrugged off, setting up a drop in yields as they catch up, according to Bank of America.

Lagarde: Broad fiscal support will force the European Central Bank to raise key interest rates.

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