The short-term trend of the TRUMP token is supported by a revival in macro risk appetite, but it still faces liquidity risks such as concentrated whale selling pressure and large team token releases. The current $2.79 level acts as strong support, with $2.70 as the downside risk level. If the price cannot return to the $3.00–$3.10 range, the rebound is unlikely to continue. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs, closely monitor the movements of large holders and changes in macro policies, and adopt a strategy of selling high and buying low within the range. Avoid blindly adding leverage.

Recent ceasefire in the Middle East and progress in US-Iran nuclear negotiations have eased geopolitical risks, causing oil prices to drop and boosting global risk assets; tech stocks and Bitcoin have surged. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains regarding the Federal Reserve's personnel changes, leaving potential volatility risks. The market continues to oscillate between risk appetite and policy expectations. In the short term, this creates a hot pursuit atmosphere for high-leverage assets, providing some support for the TRUMP token. However, in the medium and long term, attention must be paid to the sustainability of macro conditions and how policy direction may suppress risk assets.

The Middle East ceasefire and US-Iran nuclear talks progress have eased geopolitical risks, pressuring oil prices and boosting global risk assets. The Nasdaq set a record 12-day winning streak, with tech and AI sectors attracting capital. Bitcoin rebounded above $74,000 amid steady ETF flows and balanced leverage liquidations. However, Democratic opposition delays Fed nominee Wash's hearing, increasing leadership uncertainty and market volatility risks.

Bitget UEX Daily Report | Hopes for Middle East Peace Rise, Nasdaq Hits Record 12 Consecutive Gains, Anthropic Releases New AI Model

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

Next week’s key macro events include the expiration of the US-Iran temporary ceasefire on April 19, with US representatives arriving in Islamabad on April 20 for negotiations, though Iran has not confirmed participation due to ongoing maritime blockades. On the same day, the Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing for Kevin Walsh’s Federal Reserve Chair nomination, with a 94% market confirmation probability. Additional events include US retail sales data, oil inventories, PMI releases, ECB speeches, Tesla earnings, Japan’s CPI, and Trump’s TRUMP token luncheon and White House reporter dinner.

Important macro events next week: Temporary US-Iran ceasefire expires, and the Fed Chair nomination hearing for Waller will be held on the same day.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a weekend decline after Bitcoin reached $78,000, impacted by the KelpDAO hack and tensions between Iran and the US. This week features numerous economic developments and altcoin events, including token airdrops, regulatory hearings, new token launches, and significant industry forums. Key events include the US Senate Banking Committee hearing, the launch of Polymarket V2, Binance delistings, and a Trump luncheon for TRUMP token holders.

Watch Out: Lots of Economic Developments and Altcoin Events This Week—Here’s the Day-by-Day, Hour-by-Hour Schedule

On-chain data shows that multiple large holders have successively transferred millions to tens of millions of TRUMP tokens to centralized exchanges, with single transfers reaching several million dollars, indicating that concentrated holders may be realizing profits in the short term. Meanwhile, the core team has also transferred tens of millions of tokens to custodial institutions; if these are subsequently released, circulation pressure will further increase. This collective selling intention, combined with a highly concentrated market structure, significantly raises short-term supply-side risks and exerts substantial downward pressure on price.

The address ranked second on Trump's lunch leaderboard has transferred all 2.22 million TRUMP tokens, worth approximately $6.82 million, to Binance, according to on-chain analyst Yujin.

Trump Lunch Leaderboard Runner-up Transfers All 2,220,000 TRUMP Tokens to Binance, Worth Approximately $6.82 Million

On April 18, an address that previously lost $14.61 million on the meme coin MELANIA and ranked second on the Trump Lunch Points Leaderboard after purchasing 2.22 million TRUMP tokens transferred all these tokens, worth $6.82 million, to Binance. The address, formerly named “Hmm NB” and now “WJGZ,” is rumored to belong to “X Boss” (qklpj.eth).

The address of the second-ranked Trump luncheon leaderboard transferred all 2.22M TRUMP to Binance.

A whale transferred 2.22 million TRUMP tokens, worth approximately $6.82 million, to Binance. The address had previously suffered losses of about $14.61 million in MELANIA trades and had purchased the TRUMP tokens to join a related leaderboard. The transfer occurred one hour ago, according to crypto analyst Yu Jin.

A whale transferred 2.22M TRUMP to Binance, worth approximately $6.82M.

825.3 million TRUMP tokens worth $23.44 million were transferred from a BitGo custodial wallet to OKX, according to on-chain analyst Yu Jin. Tracing back, these TRUMP tokens originated from a team wallet transfer two months ago.

8.253M TRUMP transferred from a BitGo custody wallet to OKX, valued at $23.44M.

From the daily chart, TRUMP quickly retreated after hitting a high of $3.118 in mid-month, and has been consolidating below $3 for several consecutive days. Trading volume surged on April 19 and 20, reaching tens of millions, with the low area near $2.79 repeatedly providing support. Yesterday's rebound closed at $2.87; short-term shows a death cross with increased volume, which may indicate a secondary pullback after a brief recovery. If the price fails to return above $3, the next support level is near $2.70. If bullish momentum is regained along with improved market sentiment, breaking through the $3.00–$3.10 range is required for mid-term stabilization.

The TRUMP token price surged 50% after announcing a luncheon at Mar-a-Lago in March but has since dropped over 33% to $2.80. Whale investors have withdrawn large amounts from exchanges, with single addresses holding over 1 million tokens worth $3.2 million. Over 91% of tokens are held by the top 10 wallets, causing limited liquidity and increased price volatility, potentially influenced by upcoming midterm elections and related events.

TRUMP token price dropped 33%, whale holdings concentrated

MAGA

ECB: Lagarde Signals No Near-Term Rate Move – Danske Bank

Memecoin Watchlist: 3 Tokens Gearing Up for Big Moves This Week

Nikkei: Bank of Japan to hold rates steady in April

Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Vows Fed Independence Despite Trump’s Push for Rate Cuts

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April has reached 100%.

A certain whale withdrew approximately 387,000 TRUMP from OKX, worth $1.11M.

US Treasuries are still pricing in a war in the Middle East that other asset classes have shrugged off, setting up a drop in yields as they catch up, according to Bank of America.

Lagarde: Broad fiscal support will force the European Central Bank to raise key interest rates.

Iran accuses US of attacking commercial vessel, escalating Strait tensions

Pentagon reports 415 US troops wounded in Iran, indicating ground involvement

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