Driven by easing geopolitical risks and a strong Bitcoin breakout, SAFE completed a bottom formation at the 0.0925 region on April 1, and subsequently rebounded with coordinated volume and price action. A short-term effective breakout above 0.1425 indicated a medium-term reversal signal. Currently, the price is consolidating within the 0.1350–0.1420 range, showing strong interaction between support and resistance, with short-term attention needed for a decisive breakout in this range. In the medium to long term, if Bitcoin remains above $74,000–$75,000 and releases further momentum, SAFE is expected to challenge the key resistance zones at 0.1660 and 0.1700. It is advised to monitor macro risks and the linkage with major digital assets, participate prudently based on existing support levels, and pay special attention to volatility risks arising from external variables such as oil prices.

Following a short-term truce agreement between the US and Iran, risk appetite in the market rebounded quickly. SAFE bottomed out and rebounded on April 1, closing at 0.1033 on the day. The next day, it saw a substantial volume breakout to the previous high at 0.1082. On April 5, a single-day bullish candle appeared with trading volume exceeding 25 million, reaching as high as 0.1425, confirming a medium-term reversal from the base near 0.0925. The balance between bulls and bears was broken, bullish confidence was restored, and short-term momentum strengthened significantly.

On April 8, 2026, just under 90 minutes before Trump's set "deadline," the US and Iran reached a dramatic two-week ceasefire agreement, pausing nearly 40 days of Middle East conflict. For the crypto market, this short-term risk appetite recovery, combined with regulatory progress like the CLARITY Act, creates a rare rebound opportunity.

Crypto Market Macro Report: US-Iran Ceasefire, a Moment for Risk Asset Revaluation

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher again, leading to a temporary pullback in market risk appetite. After reaching a high of 0.1424 on April 12, SAFE faced pressure and retreated, hitting an intraday low near 0.1350 on April 15, with a noticeable decline in daily trading volume and capital inflow. The current price fluctuates between 0.135 and 0.142, and short-term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of support and resistance in this range, as well as further market feedback on corporate Q1 reports and changes in geopolitical risks.

Due to Trump's order to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged, US stock futures fell, and the dollar strengthened. This escalation followed failed US-Iran talks in Pakistan, disappointing investors. Elias Haddad from Brown Brothers Harriman noted this will likely reignite risk aversion this week. Investors are also focused on the upcoming Q1 earnings season, seeking corporate leaders' views on rising risks.

Earnings season intertwined with geopolitical crises, market risk aversion reignites.

A hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve failed to stop risk assets from diverging under the dual impact of geopolitics and inflation, while institutions remain active in allocating to digital assets for the long term. As Bitcoin broke through $74,000 and targeted the critical $75,000 level, resulting in increased volatility, SAFE reclaimed and consolidated above 0.1500, reaching a high of 0.1571 on April 17 with trading volume returning to tens of millions. If Bitcoin can further break into the positive Gamma zone and sustain its upward trend, SAFE is likely to continue challenging the 0.1660 and 0.1700 levels. Investors should closely monitor position cost and key moving average supports.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

Safe

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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SAFE price today is 0.15, with a live price change of -3.10 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade SAFE on Bybit-eu.

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