The current P2P token market is constrained by a liquidity bottleneck. In the short term, the market experiences volatility with persistently low trading volumes and a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors, keeping prices within a narrow range (volatility at the bottom 10% of historical levels). Although there are signs of recovery in the mid-term, structural liquidity remains inadequate, and caution is advised against false rebounds. It is recommended to closely monitor developments in perpetual contract innovations within the industry. If relevant technologies and applications materialize, P2P tokens could overcome current challenges by improving market depth and price stability. Investors should dynamically adjust their positions and opportunistically add quality assets, targeting a potential upside of 15–20% from current price levels.

Recent reports indicate that market-making in prediction markets has become more challenging, with over 90% of markets unlikely to persist until year-end. Combined with sparse short-term contract trading, liquidity is concentrated in a handful of leading contracts. This supply-demand imbalance puts pressure on price volatility and raises investor caution. Current candlestick charts reveal that trading volumes are significantly lower than historical averages, and prices oscillate within a narrow range, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces and a lack of directional breakout signals in the short term.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Some analysts point out that the crypto market is showing signs of recovery, although further data confirmation is needed. Certain short-term trends are beginning to shift direction. In this sensitive period, if market data continues to improve, P2P tokens could see a boost in sentiment, driving a mid-term rebound. However, given that overall liquidity dispersion remains low, investors should remain alert to the risks of false breakouts triggered by unexpected negative events.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Industry experts are calling for a transition beyond binary option architectures toward perpetual contract models to achieve greater capital efficiency and sustained liquidity. If the P2P ecosystem successfully implements this upgrade, it would fundamentally address structural bottlenecks, deepen market liquidity, expand the global use of tokens, and enhance price stability mechanisms, thereby significantly strengthening long-term value support.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

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