BTC.B currently demonstrates strong resilience against declines, with limited short-term price pullbacks. The key support level to watch is $86,000; a breakdown may trigger long liquidation risks. Breaking above the $94,000–$95,000 range could lead to severe short squeezes and further upside. Large 'straddle' bets in the options market indicate rising volatility expectations, suggesting potential wide-ranged fluctuations in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in support/resistance levels and leverage liquidation dynamics, implement strict risk controls, and consider buy-the-dip strategies in line with the trend. Medium- to long-term prospects are boosted by institutional participation and policy easing, making the long-term target of $150,000 strategically attractive.

Currently, Bitcoin's price remains below the average cost for short-term holders, leaving them in a loss position and thus reducing their willingness to sell for profit. With limited selling pressure, prices often rebound quickly near support levels even after pullbacks, demonstrating strong anti-drop capability. However, when the price approaches or breaks through these short-term holder average cost ranges, potential liquidation pressure can release rapidly, and one should be wary of a possible wave of sell-offs triggered at these points.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

A straddle option trade totaling over $2.3 million shows that institutions have strong expectations for future Bitcoin volatility. This strategy simultaneously positions for both $80,000 put and $120,000 call contracts, indicating that the market is wary of downside risks while hoping for upside opportunities before the end of March. This demonstrates that participants are preparing for significant price swings, and the short-term market may fluctuate widely within a large range.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

The current 8-hour average funding rate remains positive, indicating strong long-side leverage appetite, but this also comes with concentrated liquidation risks. If the price drops below approximately $86,000, over a billion dollars of long positions may be liquidated, amplifying downward pressure; conversely, breaking decisively above the $94,000–$95,000 range could liquidate several billion dollars of short positions, further driving prices higher. Trading volume tends to decline during pullbacks, and after profit-booking by some, further liquidations of leveraged longs may become the next major sentiment trigger.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $95,649, the total short position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.532 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $87,099, the total long position liquidations on major CEXs will amount to $1.87 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $95,649, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.532 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $94,311, the total short position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.798 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $86,127, the total long position liquidation on major CEX will amount to $1.834 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $94,311, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.798 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, the current 8-hour average funding rate for BTC across the entire network is 0.0085%. Among major exchanges, Binance and OKX both have a funding rate of 0.0087%, while Bybit's rate is 0.0085%.

Data: The current 8-hour average funding rate for the entire BTC network is 0.0085%.

Bitcoin rebounded to around $90,500 after testing a key support near $89,200, marking its third consecutive day of pullback following a peak near $95,000. The decline is attributed to low trading volume and profit-taking. Market leverage is rising, with perpetual contract funding rates positive, indicating traders are using leverage to buy the dip. However, this concentrated long positioning increases the risk of forced liquidations and additional selling pressure if prices fall further.

Analysis: The key support level for Bitcoin is around $89,200, with traders still using leverage to buy the dip.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

With anticipated Fed policy easing, improved regulatory environment, and continued institutional entry, the traditional four-year cycle model is undergoing transformation. The market-implied probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year is around 10%, reflecting institutional confidence in the long-term bullish logic. Additionally, the expansion of real-world assets onchain and stablecoin adoption is expected to be a driving force for the continuous growth of the crypto market. Overall, these factors continue to provide value support in the medium and long term, and buy-the-dip remains the core strategy.

Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook report suggests the traditional Bitcoin "four-year cycle" may no longer apply directly to the current market. Key points include potential support from expected Fed easing, a 10.3% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end, increased institutional participation, improved regulation, and macroeconomic support disrupting old cycles. Tokenization of real-world assets and expanding stablecoin use are highlighted as major 2026 themes.

"The Four-Year Cycle" Is No Longer a Universal Formula? Bybit Releases 2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook Report

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