BTT has been consolidating sideways in the short term, ranging between 3.223×10⁻⁷ and 3.319×10⁻⁷ USDT. Momentum is building up but has yet to break through key resistance. If there is a breakout with volume above 3.319×10⁻⁷ USDT, an upside window may open; conversely, if Bitcoin fails to break above $75,000 or if market risk appetite declines, one should be alert to a pullback to 3.258×10⁻⁷ USDT and the risk of volatility. Currently, both capital and risk sentiment are cautious. It is recommended to focus on range trading in the short term and pay attention to volatility opportunities driven by breakouts in major coins. For mid- to long-term allocations, investors should wait for platform ecosystem and application developments to drive capital inflows.

Over the past month, BTT has been fluctuating within the range of 3.223×10⁻⁷ USDT to 3.319×10⁻⁷ USDT, with overall trading volume showing a contracting pattern. The price rebounded after touching the lower support on April 14, rising by about 2.6% by April 17. Daily moving averages are bullish but with limited magnitude, and short-term momentum is still accumulating. If it can effectively break through the 3.319×10⁻⁷ USDT resistance, it is expected to open up upside potential; conversely, if it retreats again towards the midline near 3.258×10⁻⁷ USDT, there is still a need for a second bottom test.

Bitcoin's recent retracement has been milder compared to previous bear market phases, but a bottom has yet to be confirmed. The rebound is mainly driven by short-term buying, rather than a broad-based easing of risk appetite. The negative Gamma effect and reduced net positions in the derivatives market indicate a lack of sustained confidence in further upside. As a high-Beta asset, BTT is prone to increased volatility tracking Bitcoin's sentiment in the short term, so significant fluctuation risks need to be closely monitored.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr noted on April 12 that the current Bitcoin pullback is milder compared to similar phases in the 2017-18 and 2021-22 bear markets. However, the retracement is not yet sufficient to confirm a bottom. With past cycles showing deeper declines, the market is closer to a mild bear market rather than a full recovery, indicating a pause rather than a trend reversal.

Analysis: It cannot be asserted that the BTC bottom has been formed; the market is approaching a mild bear market.

Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% weekly, driven mainly by spot buying rather than broad risk appetite. Derivatives markets show caution: perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest declines, and options indicate higher demand for downside protection. This suggests a rebound, not a trend reversal, amid ongoing risk aversion and cautious sentiment despite gains.

Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

Bitcoin has recently held above $74,000 and is approaching the $75,000 mark. Once it breaks through this 'volatility release point,' the derivatives market may amplify the bullish momentum. Such a stage breakthrough often triggers a short-term rally in a batch of high-risk assets. As a representative altcoin, BTT could also attract capital inflows if liquidity cooperates. However, if Bitcoin fails to firmly hold this position, it could trigger a pullback in overall risk appetite, which would in turn put pressure on BTT.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

10x Research analysis indicates Bitcoin is approaching a significant breakout, with internal trend models detecting a shift and market sentiment, positions, and capital flow data confirming structural changes. Despite concerns about quantum computing threats emerging around 2030-2035, current technical indicators show constructive momentum and multiple signals suggest a high probability of short-term upward movement. The key question remains if this will lead to a new bull market and all-time highs.

Analysis: Bitcoin may face a critical breakthrough, multiple indicators resonate pointing to an upward window.

As macro geopolitical risks ease and institutional investors increase their Bitcoin holdings, overall market confidence in digital assets is gradually recovering. The Ethereum-to-Bitcoin price ratio has reached a new three-month high, indicating market recovery, but a full pivot to niche altcoins still requires broader capital and project application adoption. If BTT can achieve substantive progress in platform ecosystem and application developments, accompanied by more stable capital inflows, its mid- to long-term value proposition will be further strengthened.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

In Q1 2026, the Ethereum to Bitcoin price ratio (ETH/BTC) rebounded to 0.0313, a three-month high, indicating a recovery in the crypto market. Ethereum network users grew 82% year-on-year to 284,000, with transaction volume reaching 200.4 million. Stablecoin supply exceeded $180 billion, about 60% of the global market. Analysts suggest that if ETH/BTC closes above 0.035 weekly, it signals continued inflows into Ethereum and high-risk assets. Bitcoin remains above $74,000, supported by over $56 billion inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Analysis: Ethereum-Bitcoin price ratio rebounds, overall crypto market recovers

BitTorrent

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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