In the current bull market atmosphere, the BUT token benefits from concentrated bullish sentiment and thus has value for trend-following allocation; however, investors should be wary of amplified volatility risks stemming from insufficient liquidity and market-making pressures. It is recommended that investors adopt short-term range-bound trading strategies, focusing on buying dips in the key 0.85-1.10 zone, while strictly adhering to stop-loss discipline. In the medium term, if the liquidity structure significantly improves, allocation weights can be moderately increased to capture potential upward trends.

Recently, market sentiment has gradually shifted from cautious observation to optimism, with several renowned investors emphasizing the importance of following the trend: proactively deploying during a bull market and managing risk during pullbacks. Initial signs of market rebound can also be observed in the data, indicating that bullish sentiment is steadily gathering. For the BUT token, this means that if the broader market continues to confirm its upward trajectory, a trend-following approach will be more advantageous; conversely, if the trend reverses, profits should be secured promptly to protect gains.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

From prediction markets to the field of crypto derivatives, liquidity shortages and position risk management have always been areas where professional market makers hold advantages. Traditional models often require stricter risk control and more frequent rebalancing when facing abrupt market moves or one-sided volatility. For BUT, the lack of deep, continuous liquidity pools and active market makers means that, when confronted with event-driven, one-sided volatility, price swings might be exacerbated, placing greater pressure on retail investors. In such cases, special attention must be paid to slippage and stop-loss costs during sudden downturns.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Bubblemaps analysis challenges claims of insider trading on Polymarket, highlighting flaws in linking a Polymarket insider's receipt of about 250 SOL from Coinbase to a prior similar deposit with a 99% correlation. They point out issues like large time gaps, ignoring other assets, and multiple matching cases within the same day. Deposits could stem from various sources or older transactions. They warn that improper use of time analysis can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Bubblemaps: Some analyses targeting Polymarket insiders in the market are flawed.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

Given the current overall bull market backdrop and structural liquidity constraints, BUT is likely to remain in a range-bound consolidation in the short term. Investors are advised to focus on two key points: first, seize opportunities to buy on minor pullbacks once market trends are confirmed; second, strictly enforce stop-losses during heightened volatility to guard against price plunges due to insufficient liquidity. If market liquidity improves in the future or innovative contract mechanisms emerge, a greater medium-term focus on the token may be warranted.

Bucket Token

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