TOSHI is currently constrained by the decline in macro risk appetite and the dominance of market risk-aversion sentiment, continuing to fluctuate in the 0.000175–0.000190 USDT range, lacking sustained short-term capital inflow. Although cyclical inflows into ETFs provide some support for sentiment, trading volume and turnover rate have not seen a substantial increase, indicating that incremental funds remain mainly on the sidelines. If it fails to effectively break above 0.000190 USDT, there is still a risk of retesting the lower edge of the 0.000175 USDT range in the future; it is recommended that investors pay close attention to short-term range trading opportunities, avoid chasing highs, and closely monitor the overall market’s long-short structure and unexpected sentiment momentum.

Recently, lingering tensions from the US-Iran conflicts, together with a notable rise in Japan’s corporate service price index and repeated extensions of the Middle East ceasefire agreement, have heightened market risk-aversion sentiment, putting pressure on digital assets in general. TOSHI saw a pullback from around 0.000185 USDT at the start of April, hitting a low of 0.0001687 USDT, reflecting a weakening overall risk appetite. Macro uncertainties, coupled with rising oil prices and inflation expectations, have exerted significant short-term pressure on TOSHI. Investors should be mindful of the rapid shifts between safe-haven and risk assets.

The crypto market mostly declined due to macro factors like minor US-Iran clashes, with Bitcoin down 1.11% to around $74,000 and Ethereum falling 2.37% below $2,300. However, SocialFi and AI sectors saw slight gains of 1.92% and 0.95% respectively. Within SocialFi, Toncoin and Chiliz rose 1.49% and 4.60%, while AI tokens Pieverse and Venice Token surged 77.43% and 4.89%.

The majority of the crypto market has pulled back, but sectors like SocialFi and AI have seen slight gains.

BTC's upward momentum slowed near $77,800 after rising from $65,000, with ETH also declining about 0.8%. Market pressure stems from Japan's March corporate service price index rising 3.1% YoY, suggesting possible BOJ rate hikes and a stronger yen, which may trigger risk asset sell-offs. Additionally, ongoing Iran conflict disrupts oil transport, pushing WTI crude over 40% higher to $96/barrel, sustaining inflation concerns and limiting Fed rate cut prospects.

Analysis: BTC's upward momentum is hindered as Japanese inflation data and the Iran war trigger market risk aversion sentiment.

On April 22, Trump initially indicated no desire to extend the ceasefire with Iran but later announced an indefinite extension until Iran submits a proposal and negotiations conclude. This decision followed high-level talks in Islamabad and internal U.S. pressures, including rising oil prices and upcoming China visit plans. The ceasefire extension is seen as a political move to buy time rather than a diplomatic victory. Bitcoin prices have been volatile, driven by Middle East tensions, with mixed signals on future trends amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Trump announces indefinite ceasefire, what is the future trend of Bitcoin?

Bitcoin futures positions and leverage ratios remain elevated, and while bears are paying high funding rates, short-term holders are not experiencing significant losses, indicating intensified market long-short contests. As a small-cap token, TOSHI is more sensitive to large-scale long-short squeezes. The trading volume spike on April 8 suggests a concentrated outbreak of panic or speculative trading that day, followed by a quick retraction, reflecting the volatility of short-term sentiment. Investors should watch for shifts in the overall market's long-short power to determine whether TOSHI will see a similar short-term squeeze or intensified correction.

According to analyst Murphy, BTC price has risen to around $79,000 with futures open interest (OI) reaching a recent high of 472,000 BTC, indicating increased market leverage. Short sellers are paying high funding fees, averaging $604,000 per hour, well above the 7-day average. High OI and negative premiums suggest that a price rebound could force shorts to cover, triggering a short squeeze. Historically, similar conditions led to rebounds, making current short positions unfavorable.

Data, Analyst: BTC short funding costs remain high, OI returns to a high point, currently not an ideal time to open short positions.

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin short-term holders' discount has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, with the STH-SOPR 7-day average rising above 1, indicating short-term sellers are no longer clearly at a loss. However, the current price remains below the $83,000 cost basis, suggesting the market has not yet entered a true risk-on phase.

Data: Analysis: Short-term Bitcoin holders' discount narrows, market warms up but risk appetite has not yet started.

Daily charts in recent days show TOSHI continuously consolidating within the 0.000175–0.000190 range, repeatedly testing the range high but failing to effectively break above the 0.000190 USDT barrier. Although global risk appetite has warmed up recently—especially against the backdrop of continuous net inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs—TOSHI briefly returned above 0.000187 USDT, but overall trading volume and turnover have yet to increase persistently, signaling a strong wait-and-see sentiment. In the short term, a breakout above 0.000190 USDT might trigger a follow-up rally; otherwise, the risk of retesting support near 0.000175 remains.

Bitcoin rose 2% to $7,910 and Ethereum 3% to $2,388 amid easing geopolitical tensions, boosting Asian markets with Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi hitting record highs. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw $823.7 million net inflows for the fourth consecutive week. The crypto fear and greed index improved from 29 (fear) to 47 (neutral). Analyst Dominick John attributes gains to ETF inflows, technical breakthroughs, and reduced risk aversion.

Analyst: Both the crypto market and Asian stock markets rise amid easing geopolitical tensions.

First Dog to Buy Crypto

The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's assessment of rising inflation and its policy path.

Reminder: Please pay close attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

Australia’s inflation remained above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band as higher fuel costs from Middle East supply disruptions compounded already-elevated price pressures to keep policymakers on a tightening path.

Uncertainty around the economic outlook and a leadership transition at the US central bank loom large over this week’s meeting of Federal Reserve officials, who are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Economists: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, waiting for changes in employment and inflation.

Mexico’s central bank will consider one more interest rate cut at its May meeting that may bring an end to the easing cycle it started two years ago, Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said.

The Fed is set to hold rates in what’s likely Powell’s last meeting as chair - then it’ll be Kevin Warsh’s turn in what has become a political hotseat under Donald Trump

UAE Quits OPEC After 59 Years, BTC Slides Below $76K Amid Hormuz Supply Shock

Iran launches airstrikes on US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar

Ukrainian drone attack ignites Tuapse oil refinery, escalating energy strikes

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